【摘要】 本文针对2023年发生在四川境内的强降水天气过程，利用SWC-3KM预报产品进行客观和主观天气学分析检验评估，分析内容包含降水量、环流背景、风场、相关物理量场等。结果表明：（1）从客观降水检验看，当日北京时08时预报产品相较于前一日20时不占优势。（2）从主观降水检验看，降水预报随着时效的临近，预报与实况更接近；对于过程开始的对流性降水，SWC-3KM比其他模式预报更有指示意义；对于系统性降水，主雨带与实况接近，但其强度偏弱、范围偏小，强降水中心有偏西、偏南的趋势；盆地西北部边坡地区、盆地南部、攀西地区、甘孜州空报明显。（3）从风场检验看，中低层风速、风向预报均有偏差，风向偏差导致强降水落区偏移，风速差异导致降水强度的差异。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using the SWC-3 KM forecasting products, an objective and subjective meteorological analysis and evaluation were conducted on the heavy rainfall events that occurred in Sichuan in 2023. The analysis included precipitation, circulation background, wind fields, and related physical quantities. The results indicate that:(1) The objective precipitation verification showed no advantage for the forecast at 08:00 compared to 20:00 on the previous day.(2) In subjective verification, the precipitation forecast became closer to actual conditions as the forecast period approached. For convective precipitation at the onset of the event, SWC-3 KM forecasts were more indicative than other models. For systematic precipitation, the main rainband was close to actual conditions, though the intensity was weaker and the area smaller, with the heavy precipitation center showing a tendency to shift westward and southward. Notable false alarms were observed in the northwestern slope areas of the Basin, the southern Basin, the Panxi region, and Ganzi Prefecture.(3) Wind field verification revealed deviations in both wind speed and direction at mid-low levels, with the direction deviation causing displacement of the heavy precipitation zone and differences in wind speed leading to discrepancies in rainfall intensity.更多还原