【摘要】 高比例新能源接入电网给电力系统的运行带来巨大挑战，多能互补调度成为消纳新能源的有效方式。阐述了多能互补调度的特征，从新能源功率预测、风光不确定性量化、多能互补系统容量规划以及多能互补调度4个方面开展相关理论和方法的介绍。在新能源功率预测与不确定性量化方面，概述了物理方法、统计方法和组合预测方法，介绍了基于概率解析法、鲁棒区间法和场景分析法3种风、光不确定性量化理论。在多能互补容量规划方面，提出了基于传统电源规划和基于灵活性评估的容量规划方法，并以黄河流域和雅砻江流域为例，概述了大型流域水风光、水风光储的容量规划理论。在分析多能互补调度特征的基础上，总结了短期调度、长期调度的建模和求解方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 The high proportion of new energy integration into the power grid poses significant challenges for the operation of power systems. Multi-energy complementary scheduling has become an effective approach for integrating new energy sources. This paper elaborated the characteristics of multi-energy complementary scheduling, and introduced relevant theories and methods from four aspects of new energy power forecasting, uncertainty quantification of wind and solar power, capacity configuration of multi-energy complementary systems, and multi-energy complementary scheduling. In terms of new energy power forecasting and uncertainty quantification, this paper summarized physical methods, statistical methods and combined forecasting methods. The probabilistic analysis, robust interval methods and scenario analysis methods were introduced to quantify the uncertainty of wind and PV power. Regarding the capacity configuration of multi-energy complementary systems, the paper put forward capacity planning methods based on traditional power planning and flexibility assessment. Using the Yellow River Basin and the Yalong River basin as examples, the capacity planning theories for hydro-wind-PV complementary systems as well as hydro-wind-solar-storage systems for large-scale basins were summarized.更多还原