【摘要】 缘起于20世纪50年代西方经济学界的生育成本—效用分析，为理解家庭生育决策提供了重要的理论基石。随着我国生育决策机制由国家政策主导向家庭自主选择转变，该理论凭借对个体理性生育行为的解释力，日益受到国内学界关注。系统回顾七十年来生育成本—效用理论的发展历程，基于研究视角（需求与供需互动）与分析层次（微观与宏观）的二元划分，整合并评述不同发展阶段的理论成果。研究发现，生育成本—效用理论在演进中逐步形成了四种研究样态：微观—静态需求、微观—动态供需、宏观—需求和宏观—供需，呈现出从单一理性决策向多要素、跨学科的综合框架发展趋势。进一步聚焦国内应用现况可见，尽管该理论被广泛应用于实证分析，尤其在二孩生育决策研究中显示出良好解释力，但仍存在明显不足：一是多数研究仍局限于传统家庭经济学范式，侧重于个别变量分析，缺乏对文化、制度、心理认知等多元因素的系统整合；二是现有研究偏重于经验分析，理论构建较为薄弱，核心概念缺乏清晰界定与理论校准，导致实证结论的可比性较低。未来应通过跨学科合作加强整体性理论构建，并构建本土化的生育成本—效用测量体系，为深入理解中国低生育率问题提供学理支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 The cost-utility analysis of fertility, which originated in western economics in the 1950s, has provided an important theoretical foundation for understanding household fertility decision-making. As China’s fertility decision-making mechanism has shifted from statepolicy dominance to greater individual autonomy, this framework noted for its ability to explain rational fertility behavior has gained increasing academic attention domestically. This paper systematically reviews the evolution of fertility cost-utility theory over the past seventy years, organizing and evaluating theoretical developments through a dual analytical lens of research perspective(demand vs. supply-demand interaction) and level of analysis(micro vs. macro). The study finds that the theory has evolved into four main research paradigms: micro-static demand, micro-dynamic supply-demand, macro-demand, and macrosupply-demand, reflecting a shift from unidimensional rational decision-making toward a more integrated, multi-factor, and interdisciplinary framework. Although the theory has been widely applied in empirical studies in China, particularly in research on second-child decisions, where it demonstrates strong explanatory power, notable limitations remain. Most studies remain confined to traditional household economics frameworks, emphasizing isolated variables while overlooking systematic integration of cultural, institutional, and cognitive factors. Moreover, heavy reliance on empirical analysis has led to underdeveloped theoretical construction, inconsistent conceptual definitions, and limited comparability across findings. In the future, interdisciplinary efforts should strengthen holistic theoretical development and establish a localized system for measuring fertility costs and utilities, thereby providing deeper scholarly support for understanding China’s low fertility rates.更多还原