【摘要】 文章利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP再分析资料、双偏振雷达资料和数值预报资料，对2020-06-05—09发生在广东韶关的一次破历史纪录的极端强降雨过程进行了诊断分析。结果表明：此次暴雨过程发生在季风活跃期，高、低层天气系统的配合和地形的抬升为此次降雨提供了有利的动力条件；孟加拉湾西南季风和越赤道气流为此次降雨提供了丰沛的水汽；此次降雨过程阶段性明显，以热带海洋性降水为主，强降水中心上空垂直风切变的加大和维持是9日凌晨极端降雨持续的主要原因；EC模式对降雨落区预报具有较好的参考性，Grapes-GZ模式对降雨强度预报较好，其中Grapes-3 km短临模式对9日凌晨的强降雨预报具有较好的指示作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 This article uses conventional meteorological observation data, NCEP reanalysis data, dual polarization radar data and numerical prediction data to diagnose and analyze a historical record breaking extreme heavy rainfall process in Shaoguan, Guangdong Province from June 5 to September 2020.The results show that this rainstorm process occurred in the active monsoon period, and the cooperation of high and low level weather systems and the uplift of terrain provided favorable dynamic conditions for this rainfall.The southwest monsoon of the Bay of Bengal and the cross equatorial airflow provided abundant water vapor for this rainfall.The precipitation process this time is clearly phased, with tropical oceanic precipitation as the main cause.The increase and maintenance of vertical wind shear over the center of heavy precipitation are the main reasons for the continued extreme rainfall in the early morning of the 9th.The EC model has good reference value for rainfall area forecasting, while the Grapes GZ model has good accuracy for rainfall intensity forecasting.Among them, the Grapes-3 km short-term model has a good indicative effect on the heavy rainfall forecast in the early morning of the 9th.更多还原