【摘要】 郑州市作为中原大城市，城市内涝时有发生，科学客观评估城市内涝灾害风险极为重要。本文根据城市内涝致灾机理，基于地形、近年降水和最新的经济发展指标等相关数据，应用CRITIC(Criteria Importance Though Intercrieria Correlation)客观权重和AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process)层次法相结合的方法，开展郑州市中心城区的暴雨内涝风险评估。结果表明：郑州市中心城区，城市内涝灾害高风险和次高风险主要分布在二七区、管城区西北部和东部、金水区南部；各区平均致灾风险指数最大值为二七区，整体达到次高风险，管城区与金水区平均风险达到中风险。利用2016—2022年暴雨内涝过程对评估结果进行检验，积水点位于高风险和次高风险区域的占44.2%,位于中级以上风险区域的共占比77.3%;通过个例分析发现，大部分积水过程的积水点与城市内涝综合风险中高级区域对应较好。评价结果能够反映出郑州市中心城区的内涝灾害风险分布情况，特别是二七区、管城区西北部和金水南部，积水点集中且密度最大，与内涝灾害次高以上风险高度一致，可为城市防洪策略、灾害风险管理等实践提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Zhengzhou, a pivotal city in the Central Plains region, witnesses rapid urban development, accompanied by swift transformations in its urban underlying surfaces, exposure levels, and spatial distribution of precipitation patterns. As a result, urban waterlogging incidents become a frequent occurrence, posing significant challenges to the city’s resilience. Recognising this, it becomes imperative to conduct a scientific and objective assessment of the risk of urban waterlogging disasters. This assessment seeks to establish a robust scientific basis and foundation that can inform urban flood control strategies, guide disaster risk management practices, and facilitate the planning and development of sponge city initiatives in Zhengzhou. To comprehensively evaluate the risk of urban waterlogging in Zhengzhou’s central urban area, this study adopts a method that integrates the CRITIC(Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation) objective weighting technique with the AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process). This combined approach leverages the mechanism of urban waterlogging disasters and incorporates relevant data such as terrain features, precipitation patterns in recent years, and the latest economic development indicators. By applying this rigorous method, the study aims to provide a nuanced understanding of the risk of rainstorm waterlogging in the study area. The results show that the high and secondary high-risk areas of urban waterlogging disasters in Zhengzhou’s central urban area are primarily concentrated in Erqi District, the northwest and eastern regions of Guancheng District, and the southern part of Jinshui District. Notably, Erqi District exhibits the highest average disaster-causing risk index among all districts, reaching the level of secondary high risk. In contrast, Guancheng District and Jinshui District exhibit an average risk level that is moderate. To validate the robustness of the assessment results, major waterlogging events in recent years are analysed for verification. The analysis demonstrates that 44.2% of the waterlogging points are located within the high and secondary high-risk areas of waterlogging, while 77.3% are situated in areas with risks above the moderate level. Furthermore, through detailed case analysis, it is observed that the majority of waterlogging points during the waterlogging process align closely with the moderate and high-risk areas of urban waterlogging, indicating a high degree of accuracy and reliability in the assessment method. The evaluation results presented in this study effectively reflect the distribution of waterlogging disaster risks in Zhengzhou’s central urban area. Specifically, in Erqi District, the northwest of Guancheng District, and the south of Jinshui District, where waterlogging points are concentrated and exhibit the highest density, the risk levels are consistent with the secondary high risk and above of waterlogging disasters. This strong correlation between the assessment results and actual waterlogging incidents underscores the reliability and validity of the assessment method used in this study. Consequently, these findings can provide valuable insights and guidance for urban flood control strategies, disaster risk management practices, and the planning and development of sponge city initiatives in Zhengzhou.更多还原