【摘要】 科学设计中国能源系统低碳转型的多元路径并把握其异质性，对实现碳达峰目标有重要参考价值。基于EnergyPLAN模型构建统筹电力、热力、工业、交通4大部门的能源系统，通过仿真模拟研判系统转型的季节异质性、部门异质性和成本异质性，得出以下结论。①冬季在大陆气团、低温、日照等综合影响下风电占比最大、水电次之、太阳能发电最小；夏季进入丰水期且太阳能丰沛，但可能诱发过剩电力生产；春季锅炉供热和热电联产逐步被燃煤电厂替代。核电由于资源消耗小、供能稳定等优势故得以发展，而生物质能和地热能由于资源分散、收集运输困难故出力贡献有待提升。②电力部门是转型工作“排头兵”。热力部门煤炭消费占据主导，作为过渡能源的天然气占比呈上升态势，合理引入生物质能有利于碳减排。电炉钢等技术推广有助于破解工业部门转型瓶颈。交通部门转型重点为以节能促降碳。③由于碳达峰阶段煤炭等在能源保供中的“压舱石”作用，故燃料成本占比最大。基准路径下碳排放成本次之，而低碳和强化低碳路径由于转型成本提升故投资成本次之。强化低碳路径下碳排放成本最小，这得益于跨部门能源协同消纳和碳捕集技术的探索应用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Scientifically designing multiple paths of low-carbon transition of China’s energy system and clarifying their heterogeneity is a necessary prerequisite for achieving the goal of carbon peaking.Based on the EnergyPLAN model,a system composed of multiple departments of electricity,heat,industry and transportation is constructed.Through model simulation,the seasonal heterogeneity,departmental heterogeneity and cost heterogeneity of system transition are investigated.The results show that:(1) in winter,under the comprehensive influence of continental air mass,low temperature and sunshine,wind power generation accounts for the largest proportion,followed by hydropower generation and solar power generation is the smallest.Summer is a period of abundant water and solar energy,but it may induce excessive power production.In spring,boiler heating and combined heat and power are gradually replaced by coal-fired power plants.Due to the advantages of low resource consumption and stable energy supply,nuclear power is accelerating its development.Due to scattered resources and difficulties in collection and transportation,the output contribution of biomass energy and geothermal energy needs to be improved.(2) The power sector is the vanguard of transformation work.Coal consumption is dominant in the thermal sector,and the proportion of natural gas as a transitional energy source is on the rise.In addition,the reasonable introduction of biomass energy is beneficial to carbon emission reduction.The promotion of advanced technologies such as electric furnace steel can help to solve the bottleneck of industrial sector transition.The transition of the transportation sector should focus on promoting carbon reduction by saving energy.(3) Due to the “ballast stone” role of coal in ensuring energy supply during the period of carbon peaking,the fuel cost accounts for the largest proportion.The carbon emission cost is the second under the benchmark path,and the investment cost is the second under the low-carbon and enhanced low-carbon paths due to the increase of transition cost.The carbon emission cost ranks last under the enhanced low-carbon path,which is due to the collaborative energy consumption of multiple departments and the exploratory application of carbon capture technology.更多还原