【摘要】 利用青海省泽库县国家气象站1961～2023年的逐日降水量数据以及2003～2023年的牧草产量数据，通过线性趋势分析、5 a滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验和相关性分析等方法，探讨了极端降水指标变化趋势、突变特征及其与牧草产量之间的关系。结果表明：（1）各极端降水指标整体上呈微弱的上升趋势；（2）在所有极端降水指标中，PRCPTOT、RX5day、R95、SDII及R20mm指标表现出显著的突变现象，而CWD指标未发生突变现象；（3）所有极端降水指标均与年总降水量呈正相关关系，其中PRCPTOT指标与年牧草产量之间存在显著的正相关关系，而其他指标则与牧草产量呈负相关关系。本研究结果有助于深入理解泽库地区极端降水事件的变化特征及其对牧草产量的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Station in Zeku County,Qinghai Province(1961–2023) and forage yield data(2003–2023),this study investigated the trends,abrupt changes,and relationships between extreme precipitation indices and forage yield through linear trend analysis,5-year moving average,Mann-Kendall non-parametric test,and correlation analysis. The results show that:(1) All extreme precipitation indices exhibited a slight overall upward trend.(2) Among the indices,PRCPTOT(annual total precipitation),RX5day(maximum 5-day precipitation),R95(very wet days),SDII(simple daily intensity index),and R20mm(number of heavy precipitation days) showed significant abrupt changes,while the CWD(consecutive wet days) index exhibited no abrupt change.(3) All extreme precipitation indices were positively correlated with annual total precipitation. Notably,the PRCPTOT index showed a significant positive correlation with annual forage yield,while other indices were negatively correlated with forage yield. These findings enhance the understanding of extreme precipitation variations and their impacts on forage yield in the Zeku region.更多还原