【摘要】 政党如何发展以及为何变革是政党研究领域的重要议题。在欧洲地缘政治格局深刻调整、经济结构转型压力加剧以及右翼民粹主义思潮涌动的多重挑战背景下，欧洲中右翼政党相继通过纲领性“右转”予以应对。通过拓展政党变革的整合理论模型，本文构建了由“外部环境因素”与“核心机制”构成的政党变革综合理论分析框架，并以德国基督教民主联盟为案例，采用政党纲领文本分析与政治过程追踪相结合的方法进行探究。研究发现，基民盟在经济政策、社会文化政策以及外交与安全政策领域均呈现“右转”趋势，但程度各异。外交与安全政策领域的“右转”最为显著，社会文化政策领域次之，经济政策领域变化幅度相对较小。选民偏好向“议题政治”的转变以及右翼民粹主义政党德国选择党的议题竞争导致基民盟在选举中失利，进而引发党内主导派别更替和领导层变动，最终推动了政党纲领性的“右转”,而俄乌冲突等重大突发事件加速了这一过程。“右转”政策虽有助于德国基民盟等欧洲中右翼政党在短期内突破选举困境，但其长期有效性取决于这些政党能否通过“右转”切实提升执政效能。更多还原

【Abstract】 Issues about how political parties develop and why they change themselves are of great significance in the field of party studies. Against the backdrop of the profound geopolitical restructuring of Europe, the intensifying pressure of economic structural transformation, and the surging tide of right-wing populist ideologies, European center-right parties have successively responded to the challenges by programmatic “rightward shifts”. By modifying the integrated theory of party change, this article develops a comprehensive theoretical framework comprising “external environmental factors” and “core mechanisms” and employs a methodological approach that combines textual analysis of party manifestos with process tracing, with the German Christian Democratic Union(CDU) as a case study. The authors have observed the most pronounced rightward shift in the field of foreign and security policy, followed by that in the socio-cultural policy field, with economic policy showing modest changes. The shift in voter preferences toward “issue politics” and the issue-based competition from AfD have led to electoral setbacks for the CDU, prompting the replacement of dominant intraparty factions and leadership changes, ultimately driving a programmatic rightward shift. Major disruptive events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have accelerated and intensified this process.The “rightward shift” can help European center-right parties overcome electoral challenges in the short term. However, its long-term effectiveness depends on whether they could achieve tangible governance results.更多还原