【摘要】 本文基于英国1718年至1870年的历史数据，采用时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)模型，探究了金融发展对英国早期经济增长及工业各行业产出的动态影响。结果显示，相较于整体金融发展，金融市场化冲击对经济增长的影响更为显著。其中，银行业和股票市场是经济增长的关键驱动力量，而短期债券成本的下降和广义货币供应量的增加都抑制了经济增长。并且，相较工资、技术进步和劳动力供给，银行业和股票市场对经济增长的促进作用更显著。分行业研究进一步表明，各工业子行业对金融发展的反应存在差异。银行和商业票据实际利率的下降显著推动了纺织业的扩张，广义货币供应量的增加助推了其他行业的繁荣，股票市场的发展则促进了所有行业的产出增长。本文为工业革命的金融起源提供了实证证据，为现代金融政策的制定和实施提供了历史经验依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on historical data from the UK(1718-1870),this paper employs a TimeVarying Parameter Vector Autoregression(TVP-VAR)model to investigate the dynamic impact of early financial development on economic growth and the output of various industrial sectors. The results show that,compared to overall financial development,financial market-oriented shocks have a more significant impact on economic growth. The banking sector and the stock market are key driving forces behind economic growth,while the decline in short-term bond costs and the increase in broad money supply have a suppressive effect on economic growth. Moreover,compared to wages,technological progress,and labor supply,the banking sector and stock markets had a greater impact on economic growth. Sectoral analysis further reveals that different industrial subsectors respond differently to financial development. The decline in real interest rates for banks and commercial paper significantly promoted the expansion of the textile industry,while the increase in broad money supply boosted the prosperity of other sectors. Additionally,the development of the stock market stimulated output growth across all industries. This paper provides empirical evidence on the financial origins of the Industrial Revolution and offers historical insights for the formulation and implementation of modern financial policies.更多还原