【摘要】 实现“双碳”目标，需平衡与协调经济增长与绿色低碳转型。森林碳汇兼具成本优势与生态效益，是实现“双碳”目标的重要路径。基于动态一般均衡框架，构建包含传统生产部门、碳减排技术、碳捕集与封存技术及森林碳汇的四部门一般均衡模型，通过理论求解和数值模拟，探讨碳中和约束下的最优经济增长路径，并分析森林碳汇对经济增长的促进机制。结果表明：1)在碳中和约束下，经济增长面临“投资挤出”效应，将森林碳汇纳入政策工具箱，可缓解该效应，有效发挥经济缓冲作用；2)最优碳中和投资路径应遵循技术禀赋结构。当森林碳汇具有成本优势时，应优先配置森林碳汇；而当技术减排增汇的边际成本接近森林碳汇时，对技术减排增汇的投资将非线性快速上升，呈现“技术涌现”特征。面对碳中和约束，应充分利用森林碳汇的成本优势，在其潜力尚未完全释放阶段，通过健全市场化补偿与激励机制引导投资，以较低成本缓解碳中和约束对短期经济的冲击；同时应持续推进减排增汇技术进步，加强技术储备，构建多路径协同体系，基于社会总成本最小化的路径推动绿色转型与高质量发展，从而保障我国“双碳”目标的实现。更多还原

【Abstract】 To achieve the “dual-carbon” goals, it is necessary to coordinate economic growth with the green, low-carbon transition.Forest carbon sinks offer both cost advantages and ecological benefits, making them an important pathway to achieving the “dual-carbon” goals.With a dynamic general equilibrium framework, we construct a four-sector general equilibrium model that includes traditional industries, carbon abatement technologies, carbon capture and storage(CCS) technologies, and forest carbon sinks.Through theoretical analysis and numerical simulations, we examine the optimal economic growth path under carbon-neutrality constraints and analyzes the mechanisms through which forest carbon sinks promote economic growth.The results show that: 1) Under carbon-neutrality constraints, economic growth faces an “investment crowding-out” effect; incorporating forest carbon sinks into the policy toolkit can mitigate this effect and play a macroeconomic buffering role.2) The optimal carbon-neutrality investment path should follow the structure of technological endowments.When forest carbon sinks have a cost advantage, they should be prioritized; however, when the marginal costs of technology-based emission reduction and carbon sequestration approach those of forest carbon sinks, investment in technology-based emission reduction and sequestration rises rapidly in a nonlinear manner, exhibiting a “technology surge” characteristic.In responding to carbon-neutrality constraints, full use should be made of the cost advantages of forest carbon sinks.While their potential has not yet been fully realized, sound market-based compensation and incentive mechanisms should be improved to guide investment, thereby alleviating the short-term economic impacts of carbon-neutrality constraints at relatively low cost.At the same time, continuous efforts should be made to advance technological progress in emission reduction and carbon sequestration, strengthen technology reserves, and build a multi-pathway synergistic system, so as to promote the green transition and high-quality development in a manner that minimizes total social costs, thereby ensuring the achievement of China’s “dual-carbon” goals.更多还原