【摘要】 基于第七次全国人口普查数据，采用中国人口预测软件(CPPS)对2025—2035年我国城乡普通高中学龄人口规模和教育资源需求进行预测。研究结果表明，在建设教育强国时期，随着乡镇常住适龄人口异地就学的需求不断增加，城市在校生规模大幅上升并长期保持在较高水平，乡镇在校生规模逐年下降。高中学龄人口城区化将是未来高中阶段学龄人口变动的整体趋势，城乡普通高中教育资源供需矛盾将愈加突出。基于此，应建立健全人口动态监控机制，科学制定教育资源规划；优化城乡学校布局，推进区域集团化办学；合理扩充师资规模，构建高质量有弹性的师资队伍；推动教育财政体制机制改革，加强政府财政预算中长期规划管理。在教育现代化加快推进中实现教育强国建设。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the data of the Seventh National Population Census, the China Population Prediction System(CPPS) is adopted to predict the scale of the urban and rural high school-age population and the demand for educational resources in China from 2025 to 2035. The research results indicate that during the period of building a powerful educational country, as the demand for cross-regional education among the permanent residents of townships and villages at the right age continues to increase, the scale of urban students will increase significantly and maintain a high level for a long time, while the scale of township students will decline year by year. The urbanization of high school-age population will be the overall trend of changes in the high school-age population in the future, and the contradiction between supply and demand of educational resources in urban and rural high schools will become increasingly prominent. Based on this, it is necessary to establish and improve the dynamic monitoring mechanism for population, scientifically formulate the planning of educational resources, optimize the layout of urban and rural schools, promote regional collectivization of running schools, reasonably expand the scale of teachers, build a high-quality and flexible teaching team, promote the reform of the educational financial system and mechanism, strengthen the long-term planning and management of the government’s fiscal budget, and achieve the construction of a powerful educational country in the process of accelerating the modernization of education.更多还原