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风网格实况分析产品在黑龙江省的检验评估

Evaluation and validation of gridded wind field analysis products in Heilongjiang Province

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【作者】 刘松涛; 高梦竹; 齐铎; 王承伟; 石慕真;

【Author】 LIU Songtao;GAO Mengzhu;QI Duo;WANG Chengwei;SHI Muzhen;Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory;Heilongjiang Eco-meteorological Center;

【通讯作者】 王承伟;

【机构】 黑龙江省气象台; 黑龙江省生态气象中心;

【摘要】 利用2020年1月1日00:00至2024年12月25日00:00黑龙江省910个地面观测站的逐小时观测数据为真值,采用METEVA检验工具、双线性插值方法等,对国家级逐小时5 km分辨率的10 m风网格实况分析产品开展检验评估。结果表明:总体来看,该产品在黑龙江省内平均误差、绝对误差及均方根误差较低,且保持较好的一致性,说明该产品在黑龙江省具有较好的适用性。从误差空间分布上看,西部平原和东南部山区准确率相对较低,其他地区风速平均误差在±2 m·s-1以内的准确率在85%以上,这可能与东南部山区地形复杂性、西部平原下垫面性质差异大有关。从全年变化看,风速(风力等级)总体为负偏差,4—5月表现更为明显,冬季相对较好,风矢量也表现出相同特征;风向检验则表现为春季相对较好,夏季相对差。在日变化方面,白天(08:00—18:00)风速负偏差较大,夜间较小;0~1级风误差最小,2级以上风负偏差随等级递增,≥7级误差日变幅显著增大。

【Abstract】 Using hourly ground observation data from 910 stations in Heilongjiang Province from 00:00 on 1 January 2020 to 00:00 on 25 December 2024 as the benchmark, the national-level hourly 10 m wind gridded live analysis product with a 5km resolution was evaluated by utilizing tools such as the METEVA validation tool and bilinear interpolation methods.The results indicate that this product exhibits low mean error, absolute error, and root mean square error within Heilongjiang Province, maintaining good consistency.Overall, the product demonstrates good applicability in Heilongjiang Province.In terms of spatial error distribution, the accuracy is relatively lower in the western plains and southeastern mountainous regions, while in the other regions, the accuracy for errors within ±2 m·s-1 exceeds 85%.This may be attributed to the complex topography in the southeastern mountains and the significant variations in underlying surface properties of the western plains.From the perspective of annual variations, wind speed(wind force grade) generally exhibits negative deviations, particularly pronounced from April to May, while it performs relatively better in winter, with wind vectors displaying similar characteristics.The wind direction tests show better results in spring compared to summer.In terms of diurnal variations, the negative deviation of wind speed is larger during the daytime(08:00-18:00) and smaller at night.The smallest error is observed for winds of grade 0-1,while the negative deviation increase with winds for grade ≥2,and the diurnal variation amplitude becomes significantly larger with winds for grade ≥ 7.

【基金】 中国气象局复盘总结专项项目(FPZJ2023-038);黑龙江省气象局“智能网格预报及数值模式释用”创新团队和国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1507305);黑龙江省自然科学基金联合引导项目(LH2022D0217)共同资助
  • 【文献出处】 气象与环境学报 ,Journal of Meteorology and Environment , 编辑部邮箱 ,2025年03期
  • 【分类号】P457.5
  • 【下载频次】2
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