【摘要】 进入21世纪，区域人口增减分化加剧，日益普遍的人口负增长现象引起广泛关注。本研究基于2000年、2010年、2020年三次全国人口普查数据，从人力资本总量视角系统考察我国440个地级行政单元的区域人力资本总量增减分化。研究表明，全国层面，我国人力资本总量快速增长，2000-2020年间我国人力资本总量增幅为41.69%，明显超过同期人口规模增幅；区域层面，人力资本总量与人口规模的增幅存在差异，呈现高位集聚的特征；教育效应总体上仍是人力资本增长的主要驱动力，但其主导地位有所减弱，教育效应与人口效应均呈现区域分化特征。从类型上来看，55.45%的地级行政单元都属于稳健增长型；2010-2020年间，21.14%的地级行政单元在人口减少的情况下仍实现人力资本总量增长，构成质量补偿型的发展模式。从特征上看，跨省流动人口呈现明显教育选择性，2020年东部地区集中了全国跨省流入人力资本总量的72.60%。研究表明，从人力资本总量的视角进行考察，教育水平提升在一定程度上缓解了部分地区人口负增长的负面影响，为应对人口负增长背景下的区域人口发展提供了新的解释框架。更多还原

【Abstract】 Entering the 21 st century, the differentiation of regional population growth and decline has intensified with increasingly prevalent negative population growth. Based on the data from the national population censuses in 2000, 2010, and 2020, this study constructs a database covering 440 prefecture-level administrative units and systematically examines the growth and decline differentiation of regional human capital in China. The study shows that China’s human capital has grown rapidly with an increase of 41.69% during 2000-2020, significantly exceeding the population growth rate over the same period. However, the growth rates of regional human capital varies with the regional population size accordingly by the characteristics of high-level agglomeration. The education effect generally remains to be the primary driver of human capital growth, but its dominant position has been weakened and both education effects and population effects has been characterized by dramatic regional differentiation. From the perspective of temporal evolution patterns, 55.45% of prefecture-level administrative units have achieved steady growth of human capital as the steady growth type, while 21.14% have achieved human capital growth despite their population decline as the "quality compensation" development model during 2010-2020. Cross-provincial migrant population demonstrates obvious educational selectivity and eastern regions accounts for 72.60% of the nation’s cross-provincial inflow human capital in 2020. The study shows that the educational improvements have to some extent mitigated the negative impacts of negative population growth on regional human capital in certain regions, providing a new explanatory framework for addressing regional population development under the background of negative population growth.更多还原