【摘要】 为评估G212线陇南段泥石流灾害易发区,探究层次分析法-信息量耦合模型(AHP-IVM)对于研究区的适用度,基于638处泥石流灾害点位数据,选取高程、坡度、坡向、地面曲率、地形起伏度、沟谷密度、距水系距离、水土流失敏感性、距断层距离、工程岩组、植被覆盖度和距道路距离12个泥石流灾害关键控制因素作为评价指标,运用AHP-IVM进行泥石流灾害易发性评价及区划.从受试者工作特征曲线、易发性分区合理性条件、典型泥石流3个方面进行评价结果的验证.结果表明,在所有环境变量中,距道路距离和高程是研究区泥石流灾害发生的主要驱动因素; AHP-IVM具有更高的准确率,评价效果更优,基于其将研究区分为低、较低、中、较高、高5类易发区,经合理性条件和典型灾害事件检验,分区结果有较高的置信度, G212线陇南段泥石流易发性整体上沿道路向两侧递减,较高、高易发区内灾害密度超过0.640 1处/km~2,尤其K377～K465段,泥石流灾害高易发区面积最大,占道路两边区域较广.更多还原

【Abstract】 To assess the susceptibility of debris flow disasters(DFD) in the Longnan section of the G212line, the applicability of the analytical hierarchy process-information volume model(AHP-IVM) to the study area was explored. Based on the data of 638 DFD points in the study area, 12 key controlling factors for DFD were selected as evaluation indicators: elevation, slope, aspect, ground curvature, terrain undulation, gully density, distance to hydrological network, sensitivity to soil erosion, distance to faults, geological engineering groups, vegetation coverage, and distance to roads. The AHP-IVM was applied for the susceptibility evaluation and zoning of DFD. The evaluation results were verified from three aspects: the receiver operating characteristic curve, rationality of susceptibility zoning, and typical DFD events. The results showed that, of all environmental variables, the distance to roads and elevation were the main driving factors for DFD in the study area; AHP-IVM had a higher accuracy rate and better evaluation effect in this study area, which, based on AHP-IVM, was divided into five susceptibility zones: low, relatively low, medium, relatively high, and high. The zoning results had high confidence after being tested by rationality conditions and typical disaster events. The susceptibility of DFD along the G212 Longnan section generally decreased from the road towards both sides, with the high and relatively high susceptibility areas having a disaster density of over 0.640 1 per km2. Especially in the K377-K465 section, the area of high-susceptibility DFD was the largest, covering a wide area on both sides of the road.更多还原