【摘要】 为推进绿色能源船舶动力安全应用，探讨新型能源对船舶通航影响效应下的风险级联问题，以复杂系统过程安全为视角，提出LNG动力船在复杂港口水域通航的风险级联动力学仿真模型。首先，引入系统理论事故模型与过程(STAMP)方法，辨识LNG动力船通航事故及后续的LNG泄漏和火灾爆炸的事故链；其次，采用风险传导理论建立LNG动力船通航的风险级联模型，通过改进层次分析(AHP)-熵权法，获得各个指标因子的权重集，解析风险传导概率；最后，结合复杂港口LNG动力船通航的场景数据，将各个风险因子进行量化，对LNG动力船在港口水域船舶航行风险进行复杂网络动力学仿真。研究结果表明：LNG动力船在港口航行中，碰撞、搁浅、触碰事故和后续的泄漏、火灾爆炸事故存在高度的关联性，且事故的发生是由多因素耦合级联所致；仿真结果与真实场景的实践结果具有一致性，建立的风险级联动力学模型有效。研究结果对事故链和关键节点进行控制具有指导意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to promote the safe application of green energy in ship propulsion and investigate risk cascade effects induced by new energy sources on vessel navigation, this study proposed a risk cascade dynamics simulation model for LNG-powered vessels navigating in complex port waters from a complex system process safety perspective.First, the system-theoretic accident model and process(STAMP) method is employed to identify accident chains involving LNG-powered vessel navigation incidents and subsequent LNG leakage, fire, and explosion events.Second, a risk cascade model for LNG-powered vessel navigation is established using risk transmission theory.Through an improved analytic hierarchy process-entropy weight method(AHP-EWM),the weight sets of various indicator factors are determined to analyze risk transmission probabilities.Finally, by quantifying risk factors with scenario data from complex port operations of LNG-powered vessels, a complex network dynamics simulation is conducted to assess navigation risks in port waters.Results demonstrate strong correlations among collisions, groundings, impacts with fixed objects, and subsequent leakage/fire/explosion accidents during LNG-powered vessel operations in ports.These accidents result from multi-factor coupling and cascading effects.Simulation outcomes align with real-world scenarios, validating the effectiveness of the proposed risk cascade dynamics model.These findings provide practical guidance for controlling accident chains and critical risk nodes.更多还原