【摘要】 并购商誉后续计量长期存在减值法还是摊销法的争论，根源在于商誉是否具有经济寿命。本文首次引入生存分析方法研究并购商誉的生存时间。通过Kaplan-Meier生存函数发现，中国A股2007-2022年并购项目商誉总体在50%概率上尚未发生首次减值事件的持续时间约为6年、生存时间约为10年，通过平滑的风险率函数估计发现并购项目商誉减值率呈现“倒U型”特征。在此基础上，本文提供了分行业商誉生存时间估计结果，并采用加速失效时间模型(AFT)和COX比例风险模型(COX PH)验证了商誉生存时间的主要影响因素。本文关于商誉生存时间的经验证据为完善商誉后续计量模式提供了有益参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The long-standing debate over whether to adopt the impairment method or amortization method for post-acquisition goodwill measurement fundamentally hinges on whether goodwill possesses an economic lifespan. This study pioneers the application of survival analysis to examine the survival time of M&A goodwill. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis reveals that for Chinese A-share M&A goodwill from 2007 to 2022, the median duration before initial impairment is approximately 6 years(50% probability), while the median survival time is about 10 years. Smoothed hazard rate estimation further demonstrates an inverted U-shaped pattern in the impairment rate of M&A goodwill. Building on this, the study provides industry-specific estimates of goodwill survival time. Through Accelerated Failure Time(AFT) and COX Proportional Hazards(COX PH) models, we verify the key determinants of goodwill’s duration. The empirical evidence on goodwill survival duration presented in this study provides valuable insights for improving subsequent measurement models of goodwill.更多还原