【摘要】 为评价农村公路的交通安全风险，针对传统交通安全风险评价方法的不确定性及随机性，构建基于组合赋权云模型的农村公路交通安全风险综合评价体系。选取驶出路外的风险、由车辆失控引起的正面相撞风险和交叉口风险3个一级指标以及平曲线半径、交叉口角度、视距等共计9个二级指标。改进CRITIC法并与熵权法进行组合赋权，计算各指标权重，再应用云模型理论，对农村公路交通安全风险进行深度剖析与量化评价。最后以黑龙江省某农村公路为例，对其交通安全状态做出评价，计算各等级的综合隶属度，最大隶属度为0.167 7，并与模糊综合评价结果进行对比，得到该农村公路交通安全风险等级为Ⅱ级。结果表明，该方法能为制定农村公路交通安全风险管理措施提供理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 To evaluate the traffic safety risks of rural roads,a comprehensive evaluation system for rural road traffic safety risks based on a combined empowerment cloud model is constructed to address the uncertainty and randomness of traditional traffic safety risk assessment methods.Select three primary indicators,namely the risk of exiting the road,the risk of frontal collision caused by vehicle loss of control,and the risk of intersections,as well as nine secondary indicators,including the radius of the horizontal curve,intersection angle,and sight distance.Improve CRITIC method and combine it with entropy weight method for weighting,calculate the weights of each indicator,and then apply cloud model theory to conduct in-depth analysis and quantitative evaluation of rural road traffic safety risks.Finally,taking a rural highway in Heilongjiang Province as an example,the traffic safety status is evaluated,and the comprehensive membership of each grade is calculated.The maximum membership is 0.167 7.Compared with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation results,the traffic safety risk grade of the rural highway is grade II.The results indicate that this method can provide theoretical basis for formulating risk management measures for rural road traffic safety.更多还原