【摘要】 在灾害频发且应急物资需求不稳定的情况下，为了保障关键时刻应急需求的同时减少过量储备及预测需求不准造成的损失，在应急物资成品储备基准模型上，提出了成品储备和原材料储备结合的混合储备模式，并通过构建双层期权契约下的政府-应急物资制造商-原材料供应商三级应急供应链模型，研究制造商主导和政府主导下供应链各成员的储备策略。通过模型分析和数值模拟，得到了不同储备策略下的最优总订购量、最优成品储备量以及最优原材料储备量。对比发现，相比于基准模型和制造商主导的混合储备策略，政府主导下的混合储备策略可以用较低的成本储备到更多的应急物资。此外，还分析了不同储备策略下储备方对成品储备量和原材料储备量分配方式的影响因素，探讨了应急物资和原材料的期权价格对储备各方的最优决策及预期利益的影响。该模型可以帮助政府协同多方主体、精准储备以及提升响应效率提供依据，并且帮助应急物资制造商与原材料供应商在完成救灾储备任务的同时提高盈利能力，保障自身权益，最终维护供应链整体利益。更多还原

【Abstract】 Disasters are becoming more and more frequent, and the need for emergency supplies is very changeable. In order to ensure emergency demand during critical moments while minimizing losses caused by overstocking and inaccurate demand forecasting, a combined emergency supply reserve strategy of finished products and raw materials is proposed. Also, a three level emergency supply chain model with double layer option contracts is established, including the government, manufacturer and raw material supplier. Through model analysis and numerical simulation, the optimal total order quantity, finished-product reserves and raw-material reserves under different reserve strategies are obtained. Comparisons show that, compared with the basic model and the manufacturer-led mixed reserve strategy, the government-led strategy can store more emergency supplies at a lower cost. The paper also analyzes the factors influencing the allocation of reserve quantities and explores how the option prices of emergency materials and raw materials affect the optimal decisions and expected benefits of all parties involved in the reserves. The model can provide decision-making support for the government to coordinate with all parties, carry out precise reserves and improve response speed. At the same time, it helps emergency material manufacturers and raw material suppliers to enhance profitability while fulfilling disaster relief reserve tasks, protects their rights and interests, and maintains the overall interests of the supply chain.更多还原