【摘要】 电缆火灾作为危及电缆正常运行的一个不可忽略因素，其风险的准确评估对于保障电力系统运行安全至关重要。本研究在分析电缆火灾风险因素的基础上，结合Hodges-Lehmann Estimation(HL，霍奇斯-莱曼估计)理论以及Cloud Model(CM，云模型)理论，提出一种新的电缆火灾风险评估方法——稳健云模型（HLRCM）。在梳理电缆火灾风险因素的基础上，对电缆火灾因素风险状态进行划分；运用HL对电缆运行状态数据以及专家评估数据进行处理，然后使用FCT（前向云变换）和BCT（后向云变换）生成云图，对电缆火灾风险进行动态评估；最后，以重庆烟草物流配送中心低压配电室电缆为例进行实例分析，并与传统云模型方法的评估结果进行比较，结果表明了该方法的有效性与可靠性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Cable fire is a non-negligible factor that endangers the normal operation of cables, and the accurate assessment of cable fire risks is crucial to ensuring the safe operation of power systems. Based on the analysis of cable fire risk factors, this study combines Hodges-Lehmann Estimation(HL) theory and Cloud Model(CM) theory to propose a new cable fire risk assessment method, the Hodges-Lemann-based Robust Cloud Model(HLRCM). On the basis of sorting out cable fire risk factors,the risk states of cable fire factors are divided. HL is used to process cable operation state data and expert evaluation data,and then Forward Cloud Transformation(FCT) and Backward Cloud Transformation(BCT) are applied to generate cloud maps for dynamic assessment of cable fire risks. Finally,a case study is conducted on the cables in the low-voltage distribution room of Chongqing Tobacco Logistics Distribution Center,and the assessment results are compared with those of the conventional cloud model method. The results show the effectiveness and reliability of this method.更多还原