【摘要】 1941年6月22日苏德战争爆发，中国朝野各方均对这场空前绝后的大战抱有极高的热情。在国共两党等政治团体之外，作为“第三种权力”的报刊，持续对战局的发展和走势进行研判并发表评论。苏德开战之前，国统区舆论界对于双方和与战尚存在争议，但仍不乏准确的预判。战争开始后头两个月，国统区舆论界通过观察最初的战局，形成了苏德战争逐渐胶着、趋向持久的判断。此后国内分析家甚至预见到希特勒转向进攻基辅的意图，不过基辅的沦陷实在过于突然，将传媒的情绪带入低潮。随后苏联在莫斯科会战的逆转，使多数报刊重新树立苏德战争持久化的信心，不过舆论中也出现了一些过于乐观的评论。1941年国统区舆论界对于苏德战争的研判和评说，总体倾向于持久战的观点。此种相对客观而不失准确的见解，或得益于中国长期抗战的经验，体现出民国传媒的国际视野和战略眼光。更多还原

【Abstract】 On June 22,1941,the Russo-German War broke out, and all sides of the Chinese government and people held high enthusiasm for this unprecedented war.Outside political groups such as the Kuomintang and the Communist Party, newspapers and periodicals, as the “third kind of power”,have continuously analyzed and commented on the development and trend of the war situation.Before the war between the Soviet Union and Germany broke out, there was still controversy in the public opinion circle in the areas under the control of the Kuomintang over whether the two warring sides would be at peace or at war, but there were still many accurate predictions.In the first two months after the war began, the public opinion circle in the areas under the control of the Kuomintang, by observing the initial situation of the war, formed the judgment that the Soviet-German war was gradually becoming stalemate and tended to last longer.Since then, domestic analysts have even foreseen Hitler’s intention to turn to attack Kyiv.However, the fall of Kyiv was so sudden that it brought the media’s mood to a low point.The subsequent reversal of the Soviet Union in the Battle of Moscow restored the confidence of most public opinions in the persistence of the Soviet-German war, but there were also some overly optimistic comments.In 1941,the public opinion circles in the areas under the control of the Kuomintang generally tended to hold the view of a protracted war in their analysis and comments on the Soviet-German War.This relatively objective yet accurate view, perhaps benefiting from China’s long-term experience in the War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression, reflected the international perspective and strategic vision of the media in the Republic of China era.更多还原