【摘要】 为系统揭示低空经济产业发展的动力机制并提出具有可操作性的政策建议，本文综合研判低空经济发展态势，基于内生增长理论和创新生态系统理论，系统考虑政策协同、基础设施、技术进步、资本投入、安全保障及法律法规等关键因素，厘清低空经济产业发展的理论机制，构建理论模型求解低空经济产业发展稳态，并进行仿真分析。结果表明，技术进步对低空经济产业发展的贡献约为60%，综合效率贡献约为30%，政策协同和基础设施投资的驱动作用显著。稳态分析预测显示，中国低空经济长期增长率可稳定在4.0%左右。敏感性分析表明，资本产出弹性和基础设施弹性与产出增长率呈负相关，技术增长率、安全保障弹性及政策协同和法律法规改进率与产出增长率呈正相关。基于此，研究提出构建多层级政策协同体系、推进数字孪生基础设施建设、突破高密度异构空域管理技术、优化风险加权资本配置机制、完善安全韧性评估标准、建立动态适应性法律框架等低空经济产业发展政策建议，以推动低空经济向智能化、绿色化、全球化发展，助力中国在2030年占据全球低空经济40%以上市场份额，引领全球低空经济产业发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 To systematically uncover the theoretical mechanisms driving the development of the lowaltitude economy industry and to derive actionable policy recommendations, this study comprehensively evaluates the development trends of the low-altitude economy. Grounded in endogenous growth theory and innovation ecosystem theory, it systematically examines key factors such as policy coordination, infrastructures, technological progress, capital investment, safety assurance, as well as laws and regulations to clarify the theoretical mechanisms underlying the industry′s development. A theoretical model is constructed to solve the steady-state growth path of the low-altitude economy, supplemented by simulation analysis. The results indicate that technological progress contributes approximately 60% to industrial growth, while comprehensive efficiency accounts for about 30%, with policy coordination and infrastructure investment playing significant driving roles. Steady-state analysis predicts that China′s low-altitude economy can sustain a long-term growth rate of around 4.0%. Sensitivity analysis reveals that capital output elasticity and infrastructure elasticity are negatively correlated with output growth, whereas the technological growth rate, safety assurance elasticity, and improvement rates of policy coordination and laws and regulations exhibit positive correlations. Based on these findings, the study proposes policy recommendations for industrial development, including constructing a multi-tiered policy coordination system, advancing digital twin infrastructures, breaking through high-density heterogeneous airspace management technologies, optimizing risk-weighted capital allocation mechanisms, refining safety resilience evaluation standards, and establishing dynamic adaptive legal frameworks. These strategies aim to propel the low-altitude economy toward intelligent, green, and globalized development, enabling China to capture over 40% of the global low-altitude economy market by 2030 and lead its global advancement.更多还原