【摘要】 中国-东盟是亚太区域最成功、最具活力的地区合作样板，分析中国-东盟金融合作对贸易伙伴关系的影响机制，对中国-东盟推动国际要素循环流动，服务构建新发展格局至关重要。运用文本分析和机器学习技术建立金融合作指数，探讨2008—2023年中国-东盟金融合作对贸易伙伴关系的影响。研究发现：一是中国-东盟金融合作有效加强贸易伙伴关系，且无论市场主导还是政府主导都发挥积极作用；二是当东盟国家经济发展速度、市场化程度及对中国文化认同程度越高时，中国-东盟金融合作对贸易伙伴关系的积极作用更大；三是中国-东盟金融合作通过减少两国货币波动，降低金融风险不确定性的“环境”渠道，和加强两国直接投资，提供金融资源的“资源”渠道促进贸易伙伴关系；四是全球地缘政治风险对中国-东盟金融合作与贸易伙伴关系存在U型调节作用。研究结果为更好发挥金融效力，增强中国-东盟外贸韧性，助力贸易伙伴关系高质量发展提供了有益参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The China-ASEAN model is one of the most successful and dynamic regional cooperation models in the Asia-Pacific region. Analyzing the impact mechanism of China-ASEAN financial cooperation on trade partnerships is crucial for promoting the international flow of resources and contributing to fostering a new development paradigm. Applying text analysis and machine learning techniques to develop a financial cooperation index explores the impact of China-ASEAN financial cooperation on trade partnerships from 2008 to 2023. The results show that China-ASEAN financial cooperation significantly strengthens trade partnerships, yielding positive effects under both market-led and government-led frameworks. The positive impact is more pronounced in ASEAN countries with faster economic growth, deeper marketization, and stronger cultural affinity with China. China-ASEAN financial cooperation promotes trade partnerships through the “environment” channel and the “resource” channel. The “environment” channel reduces currency fluctuations and lowers the uncertainty of financial risks. The “resource” channel boosts direct investment and provides financial resources. Global geopolitical risks exhibit a U-shaped moderating effect on China-ASEAN financial cooperation and trade partnership. It provides a valuable reference for better leveraging the role of finance, which can enhance the resilience of China-ASEAN foreign trade and promote the high-quality development of trade partnership.更多还原