【摘要】 区域尺度陆地生态系统固碳速率和潜力的定量认证方法是区域碳评估和应对气候变化的基础性工作。基于未来情景的气象、遥感和地面观测等资料，利用DNDC模型评估和预测黑龙江省森林生态系统碳汇总量和未来发展趋势。结果表明：2023-2060年黑龙江省森林植被净初级生产力平均为（548.87±40.14）g C·m^-2·yr^-1，无显著变化趋势，最高值出现在2039年，为607.18 g C·m^-2·yr^-1；土壤异氧呼吸速率平均为（293.67±8.71）g C·m^-2·yr^-1，存在极显著增加趋势，平均增加速率为0.68 g C·m^-2·yr^-1；森林固碳总量介于82.04～122.23 Tg C·yr^-1，平均为（104.53±10.58）Tg C·yr^-1，存在一定的增加趋势。黑龙江省森林植被碳吸收能力保持稳定，但土壤异氧呼吸速率的显著增加可能对森林碳汇潜力产生长期影响。研究结果以期为推动区域森林生态系统碳收支评估技术方法的发展做出贡献。更多还原

【Abstract】 Quantitative validation methods for carbon sequestration rates and potential of terrestrial ecosystems at the regional scale are fundamental for carbon assessment and climate change mitigation strategies. Based on future scenario data of meteorology, remote sensing, and ground observation, the DNDC model is used to assess and predict the total carbon sequestration capacity and future development trend of the forest ecosystem in Heilongjiang Province.The results show that from 2023 to 2060, the average net primary productivity（NPP） of forest vegetation in the province is projected to be（548.87 ± 40.14）gC·m^-2·yr^-1, with no significant trend, peaking in 2039 at 607.18 gC·m^-2·yr^-1. The soil heterotrophic respiration rate is expected to average（293.67 ± 8.71）gC·m^-2·yr^-1, showing a significant increasing trend with an average annual increase of 0.68 gC·m^-2·yr^-1. The total carbon sequestration in forests is projected to range from 82.04 to 122.23 TgC·yr^-1, with an average of（104.53 ± 10.58）TgC·yr^-1, showing a moderate increase. Forest vegetation in Heilongjiang Province maintains a stable carbon sequestration capacity, yet a significant increase in soil heterotrophic respiration rates may exert long-term constraints on its carbon sink potential. These findings aim to contribute to the development of regional forest carbon balance evaluation techniques, providing insights for enhancing carbon management strategies under climate change.更多还原