【摘要】 深化户籍制度改革是释放内需潜力的有效举措。本文主要研究户籍身份转换对家庭消费流动性的影响。首先，基于中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）面板数据，本文通过消费转移矩阵、Shorrocks指数以及消费流动质量系统分析了中国家庭消费流动性的特征和演变趋势。随后，本文考察了户籍身份转换对家庭消费流动性的影响和作用机制。研究发现：（1）中国家庭消费流动性整体呈现下降趋势，相比户籍身份不变的家庭，户籍身份转换的家庭具有更高的消费流动性，且消费流动性下降幅度更小、质量更高；（2）户籍身份转换显著提升了家庭消费流动性，其作用机制在于户籍身份转换为家庭带来了更多的经济机会，包括提高非农就业机会、享受更多产品和服务以增加消费多样性，同时提升家庭对未来的信心，但户籍身份转换对消费流动性的影响也受到消费惯性的约束；（3）相对而言，户籍身份转换对消费流动性的影响在收入和净资产较高、受教育程度较高以及处在经济发展水平较高地区的家庭中更明显。本文为理解中国式现代化进程中放松户籍制度约束的消费提振效应提供了新的微观证据，也为在进一步全面深化改革中畅通社会流动渠道、增进民生福祉提供了更具针对性的政策启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 Enhancing the fundamental role of consumption in economic development is an important pathway to accelerate the creation of a new development pattern and promote high-quality development. The reform of the household registration(Hukou) system is not only an important breakthrough to break the urbanrural dual structure, but also a key measure to maintain and enhance social mobility, as well as an effective pathway to expand domestic demand and stimulate economic growth. This paper focuses on Hukou status transformation and household consumption mobility. First, using panel data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS), this paper analyzes the characteristics and trends of household consumption mobility, and compares the differences in consumption mobility between households with Hukou status transformation and Hukou status unchanged. Then, this paper examines the impact of Hukou status transformation on household consumption mobility and discusses the underlying mechanism. The findings are as follows.Firstly, from an evolutionary perspective, household consumption mobility shows a downward trend in China. However, compared to households with Hukou status unchanged, those with Hukou status transformation have higher overall consumption mobility and a relatively smaller decline. At the same time, households with Hukou status transformation exhibit upward consumption mobility, and the quality of their consumption mobility is higher. In addition, long-term consumption mobility is higher than short-term consumption mobility. Second, Hukou status transformation significantly improves household consumption mobility, and its mechanism is that Hukou status transformation brings more economic opportunities to households, including increasing access to non-agricultural employment, obtaining more products and services to increase consumption diversity, and enhancing confidence in the future. However, this impact is also constrained by consumption habits. Third, the role of Hukou status transformation in enhancing household consumption mobility is more pronounced among households with higher income and net asset levels, households with higher educational attainment, as well as households in regions with higher per capita GDP.This paper has important policy implications. The downward trend of consumption mobility indicates a certain degree of solidification in the consumer class, which is not conducive to further narrowing the consumption gap. Therefore, how to effectively enhance upward mobility in consumption should be considered in policies aimed at achieving common prosperity. For example, efforts could include combining Hukou system reform with enhancing households’ endogenous motivation, improving mechanisms to promote fair opportunities, and smoothing social mobility channels.The marginal contributions of this paper are as follows. First, in terms of literature, this paper comprehensively analyzes the characteristics and trends of household consumption mobility based on the consumption transformation matrix, the Shorrocks index, and consumption mobility quality, which expands the research of consumption economics. Second, from a research perspective, this paper analyzes effective pathways to improve household consumption mobility from the perspective of Hukou status transformation, providing new micro-evidence for understanding the consumption-boosting effects of promoting Hukou system reform. Third, in terms of research content, this paper identifies the impact of Hukou status transformation on household consumption mobility and its mechanisms, and further explores the heterogeneous effects across different regions, households, and individual characteristics. This not only provides more targeted policy insights for improving household consumption and enhancing public well-being, but also helps clarify the channels for social mobility in further deepening reforms comprehensively, thereby promoting common prosperity for all.更多还原