【摘要】 气候变化对金融稳定的影响已受到世界范围的高度重视。由于生态系统与经济社会复杂的相互作用关系和不确定性，评估气候变化对金融稳定的影响仍有许多难点。本文全面刻画气候变化的影响机理，在纳入经济和金融系统循环反馈、金融脆弱的内在积累和货币内生创造机制的框架下，研究气候变化对我国金融稳定的影响和作用路径，探讨相应的风险防范化解机制，评估不同情景下“双碳”目标的实现情况。研究发现，气候风险中物理风险将对我国金融系统产生重大且持久的影响。现行的无偿碳配额政策不会带来转型风险，对金融稳定无显著影响。若有偿碳配额收入全部用于企业绿色投资补贴，则有偿碳配额政策可以在几乎不影响金融稳定的前提下有效降低碳排放总量。适度提高碳减排力度可以减缓有偿碳配额政策对金融稳定可能的影响。不同情景下的碳排放分析表明，为实现“双碳”目标，现行的无偿碳配额政策未来需要向有偿碳配额政策转变。本研究为在更长时期内牢牢守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线、积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和提供了重要启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper examines the impact of climate change on China’s financial stability and its transmission channels. It first investigates the long-term effects of physical risks on financial stability and their mechanisms. The subsequent analysis examines the long-term impact of the combined physical and transition risks on financial stability and their mechanisms when carbon quota policies are implemented, exploring feasible pathways to mitigate the transition risks. Simultaneously, this paper analyzes China’s carbon emission trajectories under different scenarios.To this end, this paper introduces the Dynamic Ecosystem-FINance-Economy(DEFINE) model, which incorporates the ecosystem and the financial system. The model is then evolved into a two-region model, CHN-DEFINE, and incorporates carbon quota policies that are more in line with China’s conditions and practices. The composition of assets and the financial system in the model are adjusted in accordance with the Chinese financial system. The model incorporates the feedback of economic and financial systems, the internal accumulation of financial fragility, the endogenous money creation, and the expansion effect of climate governance policies.The research findings are as follows. First, physical risks are likely to exert a considerable and longlasting impact on China’s financial system. This is primarily because climate risks will affect corporate operations through multiple channels, increasing the probability of default on corporate loans. Second, the free carbon quotas policy has little significant impact on financial stability. This is primarily due to the fact that all carbon quotas are distributed for free. Third, the transition risks stemming from the paid carbon quota policy are contingent on the allocation of revenue from paid carbon quotas. If the revenue is entirely allocated towards the subsidy of green investments by enterprises, the policy will exert a negligible influence on financial stability. Fourth, a moderate increase in the intensity of carbon emission reduction may reduce the impact of the policy on financial stability. This is primarily because the increased efforts in carbon emission reduction are accelerating the green transformation of enterprises, thereby mitigating the impact of the paid carbon quota policy on their financial situation. Fifth, both the free and paid carbon quota policies can reduce carbon emissions. Nevertheless, the emission reduction effect of the paid carbon quota policy is significantly superior to that of the free policy. In order to achieve carbon neutrality on schedule, it is necessary for future carbon quota policies to shift from free to paid mechanisms.The contributions of this paper are primarily reflected in the following three aspects. First, there is a paucity of quantitative research on the impact of climate change on China’s financial stability. The existing quantitative studies mainly focus solely on transition risks or physical risks. This study explores the long-term effects on China’s financial stability when physical risks and transition risks are amplified through their combined impact. Second, there is a paucity of research exploring the impact of carbon quota policies on financial stability. This study investigates the long-term repercussions of carbon quota policies on financial stability and their mechanisms. Third, this paper reveals that the design of carbon quota policies can affect the direction and intensity of their impact on financial stability.更多还原