【摘要】 关税跨越理论认为,面对关税壁垒的增加,企业会增加对关税发起国的投资以规避关税。本文整合了中国企业的跨国并购和出口数据、2018—2019年月度产品关税数据,构造了移动份额工具变量,发现贸易保护主义抑制了中国企业的跨国并购,这与传统的关税跨越理论并不一致。其潜在机制是,特朗普政府关税政策直接降低了企业的经营绩效,美国外资安全审查机制存在示范效应,以及中美贸易摩擦中的不确定性导致中国企业议价能力下降。更多还原

【Abstract】 The tariff-jumping theory posits that, when confronted with rising tariff barriers, firms increase their investment in the tariff-imposing country in order to circumvent the tariffs. We integrate data on Chinese firms’ cross-border mergers and acquisitions(M&A), export, and monthly product-level tariff data from 2018 to 2019. By constructing a shift-share instrumental variable(SSIV), we find that trade protectionism suppresses Chinese firms’ cross-border M&A—a finding that contradicts the traditional tariff-jumping hypothesis. This research identifies three potential mechanisms:(1) the Trump tariffs directly reduce firms’ operational performance;(2) the U.S. foreign investment security review process generates a demonstration effect; and(3) uncertainty arising from U.S.-China trade tensions weakens the bargaining power of Chinese firms.更多还原