【摘要】 后疫情时代的经济增长是世界经济关注的焦点。本文使用一般均衡结构模型量化模拟全球经贸秩序的变迁对世界和各国经济增长的影响。结果发现:第一,地缘政治冲突和贸易保护主义冲击全球经济增长,贸易保护主义的负面影响更显著;第二,中美经贸博弈不利于双边以及世界经济的增长,双边合作的增长效应明显,竞争的排他效应突出;第三,多边贸易体制瓦解将产生广泛的负向冲击;第四,区域贸易协定的发展将推动成员国和世界经济的增长。更多还原

【Abstract】 We use a general equilibrium structural model to simulate the impact of changes in the global economic and trade order on the economic growth of the world and various countries. The results show that geopolitical conflicts and trade protectionism have impacted global economic growth, and the negative impact of trade protectionism is more significant. The economic bargaining between China and the US is not conducive to the growth of both sides. The collapse of the multilateral trading system will have widespread negative impacts, and the development of Regional Trade Agreements(RTAs) will drive the growth of member countries and the world economy.更多还原