【摘要】 随着外部冲击的延宕交替，构建具有韧性的国民经济循环对保障经济平稳运行具有重要意义。本文基于城市生产网络和量化空间模型框架论述了城市经济循环韧性的内涵与测度体系，并将城市国内循环韧性分解为省内循环和省际循环韧性，考察了城市参与国内循环的不同路径及其韧性特征。进一步地，采用全息映射时空地理加权回归模型量化了国内循环韧性影响因素的时空异质性。研究发现：第一，中国城市国内国际经济循环韧性均有所下降，但城市参与国际循环受外部冲击影响更大。长三角城市群经济循环韧性不断提高，这得益于一体化的城市分工体系；北京、上海、成都和郑州等国家中心城市经济循环韧性表现较好。第二，中国城市主要参与省内循环，但省内循环参与度有波动下降的趋势，而省际循环参与度则在整体提高。省内循环韧性占国内循环韧性的主体，数值也在不断提高；省际循环韧性数值有所下降，份额占比却在上升。第三，城市数字化程度和交通便捷度的提高会对国内循环韧性产生积极作用，外商直接投资对国内循环韧性的正向影响效果逐渐减弱。同时，省际行政边界的存在会限制省际循环韧性的提升。本文从城市生产网络视角为新安全格局保障新发展格局提供了实证参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the 2008 financial crisis, the international environment and domestic situation faced by China underwent significant changes, with external shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and “Reciprocal Tariff” persisting in succession. Against this backdrop, building a resilient national economic circulation is of great significance for ensuring the stable operation of China’s economy. This paper studies the connotation and measurement system of the resilience of China’s urban economic circulation within the framework of urban production networks and quantitative spatial models. It further decomposes the resilience of urban domestic circulation into provincial and inter-provincial circulation resilience, examining the different participation paths of cities in domestic circulation and their resilient characteristics. Finally, a holographic mapping spatio-temporal geographic weighted regression model is adopted to quantify the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of factors affecting domestic circulation resilience.The findings of this paper are as follows. Firstly, the resilience of China’s urban domestic and international economic circulation has declined, but cities’ participation in international circulation is more vulnerable to external shocks. The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration’s economic circulation resilience continues to improve, with cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, and Zhengzhou demonstrating relatively strong resilience. Secondly, China’s cities primarily participate in provincial-level circulation, but inter-provincial circulation participation has increased overall. Provincial circulation resilience constitutes the majority of domestic circulation resilience, with its numerical value steadily rising; while the numerical value of inter-provincial circulation resilience has decreased, with an increased proportion. Thirdly, the degree of urban digitalization and transportation convenience positively impact domestic circulation resilience, whereas the positive effect of foreign direct investment on domestic circulation resilience gradually weakens over time. Meanwhile, inter-provincial administrative boundaries restrict the improvement of inter-provincial circulation resilience.The findings of this paper have important policy implications. Firstly, based on the comparative advantages of cities in China’s urban agglomerations, a differentiated development pattern of “core-led and peripheral support” should be constructed to offset fluctuations in a single sector through a diversified industrial ecosystem. By differentiating industrial functions, we can avoid the “all-or-nothing” losses caused by homogenized competition. Secondly, through coordinated emergency response plans among Chinese cities, we can quickly form a united front when external shocks occur, reducing the response lag caused by administrative barriers. promote data openness and sharing between cities, accelerate the construction of new infrastructure such as 5G, industrial internet, and big data centers. Finally, Establishing an integrated global network for R&D, production, and sales, and forming a “dual circulation” pattern of domestic headquarters plus overseas nodes will strengthen China’s dominance in the global value chain(GVC) and avoid becoming a passive recipient of external shocks.The marginal contributions of this paper have two aspects. On the one hand, this paper decomposes the total output of China’s cities into domestic and international circulation value-added, constructs an indicator of urban economic circulation resilience through the HP filter method, and further decomposes domestic circulation resilience into provincial and inter-provincial circulation resilience. On the other hand, this paper develops a 64-item value-added decomposition method based on inter-city input-output tables, while considering both outflow and self-sufficiency items of urban output. Additionally, a holographic mapping spatio-temporal geographic weighted regression model is used to explore the influencing factors of urban domestic circulation and inter-provincial resilience, providing empirical support for improving domestic circulation resilience from the perspective of spatio-temporal heterogeneity.Three key directions for future exploration can be identified. Firstly, leveraging refined enterprise data and the inputoutput table can help identify major suppliers and distributors. By conducting sensitivity analyses on daily sales revenue and inventory adjustments, we can assess the economic resilience of different enterprise types in cities. Secondly, we can integrate urban production networks characterized by intermediate goods circulation with quantitative spatial general equilibrium models. By explicitly incorporating exogenous shocks into model parameters, this approach bridges theoretical frameworks with practical applications, capturing distinct pathways of urban economic resilience while identifying critical causal relationships and conducting welfare analyses. Thirdly, we can evaluate urban resilience in domestic and international dual circulation through specific external shocks(e.g., international financial crises, natural disasters, and geopolitical shifts) via policy assessments or non-parametric estimation. This direction requires comprehensive multi-source data and robust identification strategies to isolate the net effects of specific external shocks.更多还原