【摘要】 建立能耗双控向碳排放双控全面转型新机制是健全绿色低碳发展机制的重要一环。本文构建了一个内含贸易关联、劳动迁移决策、控碳约束、碳收益转移等丰富特征的量化空间一般均衡模型，分析了控碳政策的区域传导机制与效应。本文的研究表明：第一，国内单个区域控碳会冲击所有关联地区的生产成本，引发贸易和人口转移，作为结果，非控碳地区的GDP增长效应平均可以抵消控碳地区约38%的GDP损失效应，但其引发的碳泄漏问题也将使得控碳地区碳排放削减成效降低一半左右。第二，控能以间接控碳的效率低于直接控碳，而指令控碳会导致碳成本“融化”，其福利损失是采用碳定价工具控碳的2倍以上，但碳市场的碳收益跨区域转移机制具有扩大区域差距的倾向。第三，更加顺畅的人口流动能够降低控碳的经济与福利损失，而贸易关联则相反，此外，更高的可再生能源与化石能源间替代弹性和可再生能源供给弹性也能够降低控碳损失，“事缓则圆”的政策逻辑同样适用于控碳政策设计。本文为理解控碳政策区域传导机制以及优化区域控碳举措提供了参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, the Chinese government has vigorously advanced climate action, establishing control mechanisms for energy intensity, carbon emission intensity, and amount of energy consumption. These measures have played a pivotal role in facilitating high-quality development and addressing climate change. However, these rigorously binding and progressively decentralized policies also face challenges, such as the development of renewable energy being constrained by energy-saving targets and divergent progress in target achievement across regions. As China’s carbon mitigation efforts deepen, exercising better control over the amount and intensity of energy consumption and establishing a direct control mechanism for amount of carbon emissions have been placed on the agenda. The report to the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed “transition gradually toward controlling both the amount and intensity of carbon emissions.” This shift will enhance the precision of carbon control policies. It is important to recognize, however, that regions are not isolated entities. Beyond their direct impact on regulated areas, carbon control policies generate spillover effects that propagate throughout the entire economic system.In this sense, the interregional allocation of carbon control targets presents significant complexities. Against this backdrop, clarifying the comprehensive effects of regional carbon control policies on both local and interconnected regions, as well as exploring the theoretical logic for optimizing the regional allocation of carbon policy targets, becomes particularly crucial.This paper develops a quantitative spatial general equilibrium model incorporating trade linkages, labor migration decisions, carbon constraints, and carbon revenue redistribution to quantitatively examine the regional transmission mechanisms and effects of carbon control policies. The results indicate, first, that carbon constraints in any single domestic region impact production costs across all economically connected regions, triggering trade and population redistribution. Consequently, the GDP growth effect in non-constrained regions offsets approximately 38% of the GDP loss in constrained regions on average. However, the resulting carbon leakage reduces the emission reduction effectiveness in constrained regions by nearly half. Moreover, under the spatial general equilibrium mechanism, a divergence between efficiency and welfare may arise: residents may make “forced relocation decisions” due to local carbon control policies, moving to regions with higher productivity. While this enhances overall economic efficiency, it results in a decline in welfare compared to the pre-policy scenario. Therefore, the design of carbon control policies should not solely pursue economic efficiency but also prioritize residents’ sense of happiness and fulfillment. Second, controlling energy consumption to indirectly curb carbon emissions proves less efficient than direct carbon regulation and generates greater carbon leakage. The welfare loss from carbon emission reduction directive exceeds twice that of carbon pricing instruments. Notably, interregional carbon revenue redistribution mechanisms tend to exacerbate regional disparities. Finally, economic restructuring in both short and long terms significantly influences policy outcomes. Enhanced labor mobility can mitigate economic and welfare losses from carbon policies, whereas trade linkages amplify these effects. Furthermore, higher substitution elasticity between renewable and fossil energy sources, along with greater renewable energy supply elasticity, helps reduce abatement costs. Based on these findings, this paper proposes policy recommendations in three areas: first, emphasizing interregional spillover effects and adopting a holistic perspective on regional carbon mitigation impacts; second, enhancing flexibility in total carbon emission target management and establishing carbon revenue redistribution mechanisms; third, leveraging strategic synergies of carbon policies and strengthening dynamic adaptability of mitigation measures. The potential contributions of this paper are mainly reflected in three aspects. First, it constructed a quantitative spatial general equilibrium model to explain China’s unique carbon control system and conducted a quantitative analysis of the regional transmission of carbon control policies. Second, it creates a versatile analytical framework that not only distinguishes between energy consumption control and carbon emission regulation but also integrates carbon control directive, carbon trading market, and carbon taxes within a unified architecture. Finally, it examines both domestic and international carbon leakage effects alongside regional equity implications of carbon revenue redistribution, providing novel perspectives for evaluating regional carbon control policies.更多还原