【摘要】 城市能源转型对实现双碳目标，缓解气候压力，保障能源安全至关重要。文章采用定基极差熵值法测度了2006—2022年中国284个城市的能源转型水平，利用Kernel密度估计、Dagum基尼系数、传统Markov链和空间Markov链、参数最优地理探测器等方法，揭示了能源转型的时空演变趋势及其驱动因素。结果表明：(1)研究区间内全国及八大经济区的能源转型水平处于平稳上升态势，表现为沿海到内陆的阶梯化分布。(2)城市能源转型的多极或两极极化趋势明显，整体差距和绝对差距扩大，空间非均衡性突出。区域内Dagum基尼系数的平均值呈“南部沿海>北部沿海>西南地区>长江中游>西北地区>东部沿海>黄河中游>东北地区”分布。城市能源转型具有显著的“路径依赖”特征，难以实现跨越式发展。(3)城镇化、人力资本、数字经济、绿色金融、城市级别是能源转型空间演进的主要驱动力。研究结论旨在为中国推进双碳目标实现进程，提升国际能源竞争力提供参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The city energy transition is crucial for realizing the dual-carbon goal, alleviating climate pressure, guaranteeing energy security, and advancing sustainable development.The study measures the energy transition level of 284 Chinese cities from 2006 to 2022 using the fixed-base extreme difference entropy method.The study uses Kernel density estimation, Dagum Gini coefficient, traditional and spatial Markov chains, and a parametric optimal geographic detector to reveal the spatiotemporal evolutionary trend of energy transition in Chinese cities and its driving factors.The research indicates that:(1)During the study period, the energy-transition levels of the whole country and the eight economic zones have been on a steadily upward trend, presenting a stepped distribution from the coastal areas to the inland areas.(2)The multi-polar or bipolar polarization trend of urban energy transition is evident.The overall and absolute gaps are widening, and spatial disequilibrium is prominent.The average values of the Dagum Gini coefficient in the regions are distributed as“Southern coast > Northern coast > Southwest region > Middle Yangtze River > Northwest region > Eastern coast > Middle Yellow River > Northeast region”.Urban energy transition has significant“path-dependence”characteristics, making leapfrog development difficult to achieve.(3)Urbanization, human capital, the digital economy, green finance, and city level are the primary factors explaining the spatial evolution of energy transition across the country and in each economic zone.The research conclusions are intended to provide a reference for China to promote the realization process of the dual-carbon goals and boost international energy competitiveness.更多还原