【摘要】 选用1971—2021年钱塘江流域15个气象站点的逐日降水量数据，系统分析了1971—2021年钱塘江流域的降水量及极端降水的特征，研究涵盖上游北源和南源、中游、下游4个分段。通过线性回归分析法、滑动平均法、百分位阈值法、Morlet小波分析法以及空间插值法，对流域内降水量的趋势、周期和空间分布进行全面研究。结果表明，钱塘江流域的降水量总体呈现出由少到多→由多到少→再变多的变化趋势。上游北源地区的降水量和极端降水事件频率最高，而下游地区降水量和极端降水事件最少。极端降水量和极端降水天数的空间分布均表现为自西南向东北逐渐减少的趋势。研究为区域水资源管理、防洪减灾以及应对气候变化提供了科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using daily precipitation data from 15 meteorological stations in the Qiantang River Basin from 1971 to 2021,this study systematically analyzes the characteristics of precipitation and extreme precipitation in the basin over the past 51 years.The research encompasses four segments:the upper reaches of the north source,the upper reaches of the south source,the middle reaches,and the lower reaches.Employing methods such as linear regression analysis,moving average,percentile threshold method,Morlet wavelet analysis,and spatial interpolation,the study provides a comprehensive analysis of trends,cycles,and spatial distribution of precipitation within the basin.The results indicate that the precipitation in the Qiantang River Basin exhibits a pattern of increase,decrease,and then increase again over the past five decades.The upper reaches of the north source experience the highest precipitation and frequency of extreme precipitation events,whereas the lower reaches have the least.The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation and extreme precipitation days shows a decreasing trend from southwest to northeast.This study provides scientific evidence for regional water resource management,flood control,and climate change adaptation.更多还原