【摘要】 本文基于农户均衡理论和跨期消费理论，构建了农户跨期决策模型，深入剖析了降低农户脆弱性进而激发农业生产投资积极性的内在机制，并运用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据以及调节效应模型，对上述理论机制予以验证。研究结果显示：降低农户脆弱性对促进农业生产投资具有积极作用；预期利率和资本农地边际替代弹性的调节效应显著成立，表现为提高预期利率会削弱农户脆弱性对农业生产投资的影响，增强资本农地边际替代弹性则会放大其影响。通过Truncated模型、Tobit模型、Heckman两步法和工具变量法进行检验，结果一致验证了实证结果的稳健性和有效性。本文为中国巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果与乡村振兴的有效衔接提供了重要理论启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the equilibrium theory and intertemporal consumption theory, this article constructs an intertemporal decision-making model for farmers, analyzes the internal mechanism of reducing the vulnerability of farm households and stimulating the enthusiasm of investment in agricultural production, and verifies the above theoretical mechanisms by using data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS) and the moderating effect model. The results show that reducing the vulnerability of farm households has a positive effect on promoting investment in agricultural production, and the moderating effects of the expected interest rate and marginal elasticity of substitution of capital and farmland hold, which show that increasing the expected interest rate will weaken the impact of the vulnerability of farm households on investment in agricultural production, while increasing the marginal elasticity of substitution of capital and farmland will enhance the impact. Tested by Truncated regression model, Tobit model, Heckman two-step method and instrumental variable method, the results consistently verify the robustness of the empirical results and the validity of the conclusions. This article provides important theoretical insights for China to consolidate and expand the effective connection between the results of poverty alleviation and rural revitalization.更多还原