【摘要】 本研究以重大突发公共卫生事件中我国股市风险为研究对象，通过传染病模型和文本分析方法，测度公众对事件风险的认知偏差，并从市场和行业层面考察该认知偏差对股市风险的影响机制.实证结果表明，在市场和行业层面上，公众风险认知偏差都会显著加剧股市风险，且该影响在事件高峰期尤为显著；其次，股市关注度是公众风险认知偏差影响股市风险的重要渠道，但其中介作用主要体现在事件高峰期；最后，时变事件风险下公众风险认知偏差对各行业股市风险的影响机制具有较强的行业异质性.本研究表明在重大突发公共卫生事件中，公众对事件风险的主观认知往往偏离于事件客观风险，且该风险认知偏差所诱发的非理性投资行为会加剧金融市场风险.更多还原

【Abstract】 Against the background of a major public health emergency, this paper examines the impact of this event on stock market risk in China from the perspective of the public’s risk perception bias. This paper measures the public’s risk perception bias through the susceptible-infected-recovered(SIR) model and text analysis and examines the impact mechanism of risk perception bias on stock market risk at both the market and industry levels. The empirical results show that risk perception bias significantly exacerbates stock market risk at both the market and industry levels, and that the effect is particularly significant during the period with high event risk. Meanwhile, this paper finds that investor attention plays an important mediating role in the relationship between risk perception bias and stock market risk, while its mediating effect is significant only during the period with high event risk. Finally, the impact of risk perception bias on stock market risk, as well as the mediating role of investor attention, vary across different sectors. These findings suggest that the public’s subjective perception of event risk deviates from the objective event risk, and the resulting irrational investment exacerbates the instability of the financial market during major public health emergencies.更多还原