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中国金融治理水平:测量体系与指数编制

Finance Governance in China: Measurement System and Index Construction

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【作者】 刘沙肖亚军郭海凤赵晨皓

【Author】 LIU Sha;XIAO Yajun;GUO Haifeng;ZHAO Chenhao;School of Finance, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics;International Business School, Xi′an Jiaotong-Liverpool University;Harris School of Public Policy, The University of Chicago;

【机构】 西南财经大学金融学院西交利物浦大学国际商学院芝加哥大学哈里斯公共政策学院

【摘要】 金融治理是推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化战略的重要组成部分。国际治理评价体系主要侧重国家间制度和结构性差异,难以反映单一国家内部区域治理差异和政策绩效变化的局限。而中国学者构建的金融监管指数、金融稳定性指数等,也同样针对国家层面。通过回顾相关研究,从宏观经济、金融体系健康发展、处罚力度、风险状况4个维度对金融治理在宏观、中观和微观3个层面的目标进行系统考察,构建可量化的省级金融治理指标体系。共选取17个具体指标,在此基础上编制中国除港澳台外的31个省(自治区、直辖市)两个层级的年度金融治理指数。研究结果表明,金融治理总指数的省份中位数与全国失业率呈负相关,与工业企业利润总额、职工平均工资、上证综指成交金额、债券总成交金额等实体经济或金融市场指标均呈较高且显著的正相关性。省级层面,更高的总指数显著预测更低的失业率、更高的企业利润率和平均工资。总指数在2005年至2021年整体呈较大幅度上升趋势,尤其是2018年以后。各省金融治理整体成效显著,且随重大经济事件、监管政策实施呈现明显时间趋势。宏观经济、金融体系健康发展和处罚力度3个维度显著提升,但各类信用风险攀升,风险防控承压。在宏观经济、金融体系健康发展、风险状况这3个维度,东部地区优于中西部地区,但在处罚力度维度,中西部地区明显优于东部地区,并且中西部地区的治理成效提升幅度大,差距逐步缩小。构建的金融治理指数不仅深入反映地区综合金融治理水平的均衡程度和动态变化,亦可用于测量国家整体情况。该指数不仅涵盖宏观和微观金融稳定、金融市场发展等方面,还引入处罚力度作为重要维度,且将金融科技创新纳入考量。研究人员可以利用该指数探索金融治理与其他经济问题之间的关系。

【Abstract】 Financial governance is a crucial component in advancing the modernization of the national governance system and enhancing overall governance capacity. Existing international governance assessment frameworks for primarily emphasize cross-country institutional and structural differences, which restricts their capacity to capture intra-national regional disparities and variations in policy-implementation outcomes. Similarly, indices on financial regulation and financial stability developed by Chinese scholars are typically limited to national-level assessments. To address this gap, this study constructs a quantifiable province-level financial governance indicator system. Drawing on extensive literature, this study systematically evaluates financial governance objectives at macro, meso, and micro levels across four dimensions: Macroeconomic conditions, financial system development, frequency of regulatory penalties, and credit risk. The study identifies and establishes 17 specific indicators to develop a comprehensive measurement framework for evaluating financial governance effectiveness. Based on this framework, this study compiles a two-tier Financial Governance Index for the 31 provinces(including municipalities and autonomous regions) in China’s mainland.Empirical findings indicate that the provincial median of the first-tier index is negatively correlated with the national unemployment rate, and positively correlated with real-economy and financial-market indicators such as total industrial profits,average employee wages, and trading volumes in the stock and bond markets, with strong statistical significance. At the provincial level, a higher first-tier index significantly predicts lower future unemployment rates and higher corporate profitability and employee wages. The first-tier index exhibits a marked upward trend from 2005 to 2021, particularly accelerating after 2018.Provincial financial governance performance is generally positive, displaying distinct temporal trends aligned with major economic events and the implementation of regulatory policies. Macroeconomic conditions, financial system development, and regulatory penalties intensity hace improved notably. However, increasing credit risks continue to place pressure on financialrisk management. Regarding the dimensions of macroeconomic conditions, financial-system development and credit risk, eastern provinces outperform the central and western regions. In contrast, the central and western provinces significantly surpass the eastern provinces regarding regulatory penalty intensity. Furthermore, the central and western regions have demonstrated substantial improvements over time, gradually narrowing their performance gap with the eastern region.This index provides a nuanced depiction of regional disparities and their dynamics, enabling assessments both at provincial and national levels. It encapsulates financial stability and market development at both macro and micro scales, integrates regulatory penalties as a core evaluative dimension, and explicitly incorporates developments in financial technology. Researchers can utilize this index to investigate the relationships between financial governance and various other economic phenomena.

【基金】 四川省科技计划项目(2024YFHZ0161)~~
  • 【文献出处】 管理科学 ,Journal of Management Science , 编辑部邮箱 ,2025年06期
  • 【分类号】F832
  • 【下载频次】45
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