【摘要】 先用后付模式下顾客策略性退货行为越来越普遍。已有研究主要探讨策略性退货行为对企业订货量、商品定价等的影响效应，忽视了策略性退货行为如何影响顾客价值。从顾客的角度，基于不确定性和满意度的视角，探讨策略性退货对顾客价值的影响，并引入消费水平这一调节变量对上述影响边界进行探讨。首先，基于服装和鞋子两个品类的在线销售商顾客购物行为数据，采用计量经济模型和逐步回归法，检验策略性退货行为对顾客价值的影响，探讨消费水平对上述影响的调节作用。然后，采用情景实验方法收集数据，运用Process插件和bootstrap方法检验了不确定性和满意度在策略性退货行为与顾客价值之间的中介作用。并检验消费水平的调节作用。研究结果表明，策略性退货行为对顾客价值具有显著的正向影响，即不仅提高顾客复购时的消费金额，而且助推了顾客交叉购买行为；在策略性退货顾客中，策略性退货商品数量越多，其复购时消费金额越高、交叉购买越多；顾客策略性退货前消费水平仅负向调节策略性退货行为与顾客价值之间的关系，并不调节策略性退货商品数量与顾客复购时交叉购买之间的关系。在理论上，从顾客角度考察策略性退货行为的影响效应，拓展了策略性退货影响效应的研究范围，证明了策略性退货行为对顾客价值的积极影响，打破了现有研究中退货总是消极的这一普遍认知。在实践上，对鼓励企业的先用后付营销活动和顾客退货管理具有重要借鉴意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Strategic returns behavior of customers is becoming more and more common under the try-before-you-buy model.Existing studies have mainly explored the effects of strategic returns behavior on firms′ order quantity, product pricing, etc.,while neglecting how strategic returns behavior affects customer value.From the customer′s perspective, based on uncertainty and satisfaction, the effect of strategic returns on customer value is explored, and consumption level is introduced as a moderating variable to explore the boundaries of the above impact. Firstly,based on the data of customers′ shopping behavior of online sellers in two categories of clothing and shoes, econometric model and stepwise regression method are used to test the effect of strategic returns behavior on customer value, and the moderating effect of consumption level on the above impact is explored. Subsequently, the data were collected using scenario-based experimental methods, and the mediating role of uncertainty and satisfaction between strategic returns behavior and customer value was verified using the Process plug-in and bootstrap method. And the moderating role of consumption level was also tested.The study finds that strategic returns behavior has a significant positive effect on customer value, i.e., it not only increases the consumption amount when customers repurchase, but also promotes the cross-buying behavior of customers. Among customers who strategically return goods, the more the number of strategic returns is, the higher the consumption amount when they repurchase, and the more cross-buying they do. The consumption level of the customer before the strategic returns negatively regulates the relationship between the strategic returns and the customer value, and does not regulate the relationship between the number of strategically returned goods and cross-buying. The consumption level of pre-strategic returns only negatively moderates the relationship between strategic returns behavior and customer value, and does not moderates the relationship between the number of strategically returned items and cross-purchase at repurchase.Theoretically, the effect of strategic returns behavior is examined from the customer′s perspective, which expands the research perspective of the impact of strategic return behavior, proves the positive impact of strategic returns behavior on customer value, and breaks the general cognition of “return is always negative” in the existing research. Practically, this study is of great significance to the marketing activities of try-before-you-buy and the management of customer returns.更多还原