【摘要】 目的 分析2010―2023年福建省流行性感冒(简称流感)的流行特征及其时空变化趋势，为流感科学防控提供依据。方法 采用Joinpoint回归模型分析流感发病趋势，采用描述性方法分析其流行特征，采用ArcGIS 10.3制作报告发病率地图和空间自相关分析，采用SaTScan 10.1.2软件对流感进行时空扫描分析。结果 2010―2023年福建省共报告流感343 909例，年均发病率为63.38/10万，发病率整体呈上升趋势，平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change, AAPC)为38.56%(Z=6.86,P<0.001),多发于0～14岁人群。流感发病存在全局自相关和局部自相关，“高-高”聚集区主要分布在漳州市、厦门市等南部沿海的部分县(区)。时空扫描分析发现，一类聚集区主要在漳州市和厦门市，聚集时间多发生在每年的11月―次年1月，偶尔发生在6―8月。结论 2010―2023年福建省流感发病呈上升趋势，应加强重点地区及重点人群的监测和防控措施；流感发病主要集中在闽南地区，应深入分析影响当地高发流行的影响因素，制定相应的防控政策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of influenza incidence in Fujian Province from 2010 to 2023, and provide a reference for scientific prevention and control. Methods The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the incidence trend, the epidemiological characteristics of influenza were described by using the descriptive analysis methods. ArcGIS 10.3 software was used to draw the incidence map and perform spatial auto-correlation analysis. The retrospective spatiotemporal scanning analysis was conducted using the SaTScan 10.1.2 software. Results From 2010 to 2023, a total of 343 909 cases of influenza was reported in Fujian Province, with an average annual incidence rate of 63.38 per 100 000 people. The incidence rate generally showed an upward trend, with an average annual percentage change(AAPC) of 38.56%(Z=6.86, P<0.001). The disease mainly affected people aged 0-14 years old. There was both global and local autocorrelation in the incidence of influenza, with high-high clustering areas mainly located in some counties and districts along the southern coast of Zhangzhou and Xiamen. Spatial-temporal scan analysis has found that the main clustering areas were mainly in Zhangzhou and Xiamen, with clustering periods mostly occurring between November of each year and January of the next year, and occasionally occurring between June and August. Conclusions The incidence of influenza in Fujian has an upward trend from 2010 to 2023, and it is necessary to strengthen monitoring and prevention measures in key areas and populations, and more studies should be carried out to analyze the factors that affect the areas with high incidence of influenza and formulate corresponding prevention and control policies.更多还原