【摘要】 农业低碳发展对推动农业高质量发展和生态文明建设具有重要意义。选取2003-2020年中国部分省（市、区）的农业碳排放和农业碳汇测算数据，采用空间杜宾模型分析了农业社会化服务对农业碳全要素生产率增长的直接影响及其空间溢出效应。研究发现：（1）2003-2020年中国农业碳全要素生产率年均增长2.3%，其中前沿技术进步的贡献率为2.27%;(2)在空间邻接矩阵和地理距离矩阵下，农业社会化服务对农业碳全要素生产率增长均具有显著的正向直接影响与正向空间溢出效应。具体而言，直接影响体现在东部、东北部地区以及粮食主产区和主销区，空间溢出效应则表现在西部地区以及粮食主销区和产销平衡区。基于此，建议进一步加强农业社会化服务体系建设，推动区域间、省份间合作与信息共享，同时结合地域特征和农业发展实际制定差异化的农业社会化服务发展战略。更多还原

【Abstract】 The low-carbon development of agriculture is of great significance for promoting highquality agricultural development and ecological civilization construction.Based on the measured data of agricultural carbon emissions and carbon sinks from 30 provinces(cities and districts) in China from 2003 to 2020,this study employs a spatial Durbin model to analyze the direct impact of agricultural socialized services on the growth of agricultural carbon total factor productivity and its spatial spillover effects.It was found that from 2003 to 2020,the average annual growth rate of agricultural carbon total factor productivity in China was 2.3%,with a contribution rate of 2.27% from advancement in frontier technology.Moreover,under both spatial adjacency matrix and geographic distance matrix,agricultural socialized services have a significant positive direct impact effect on the growth of agricultural carbon total factor productivity,as well as positive spatial spillover effect.Specifically,the direct impact is evident in the eastern and northeastern regions,as well as in major grain production and sales areas,while the spatial spillover effect is manifested in the western region,as well as the major grain sales and balance area.Accordingly,it is recommended to further strengthen the construction of agricultural socialized service system in China,promote cooperation and information sharing among regions and provinces,and at the same time formulate differentiated strategies for the development of agricultural socialized services,taking into account the regional characteristics and the actual needs of agricultural development.更多还原