【摘要】 【目的】揭示渭河流域耕地利用及其碳储量时空演变特征，为研究“双碳”战略目标下提高耕地利用的固碳潜力提供参考。【方法】以渭河流域为研究对象，运用InVEST模型和PLUS模型等方法，对1990—2020年的耕地利用及其碳储量时空演变进行分析，并预测2035年多情景下的耕地碳储量。【结果】(1)1990、2000、2010年和2020年渭河流域耕地碳储量分别为1 020.70×10~6 t、1 022.04×10~6 t、972.02×10~6 t和943.66×10~6 t,30年间耕地碳储量累计减少了72.92×10~6 t，由耕地变化引起的碳储量净减少了10.71×10~6 t。(2)到2035年，渭河流域在自然发展、保护耕地、生态保护和城镇发展情景下的碳储量分别增加-8.36×10~6 t、0.76×10~6 t、5.16×10~6 t和-26.85×10~6 t，表明在耕地保护和生态保护情景下，研究区的碳储量也会增加。【结论】耕地是具有高固碳潜力的生态系统，落实耕地保护政策，严格控制建设用地向耕地的扩张，合理优化土地利用结构，有利于减缓研究区碳储量的损失。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Purposes] To reveal the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of cultivated land use and its carbon storage in the Weihe River Basin, and to provide a reference for enhancing the carbon sequestration potential of cultivated land under the "dual-carbon" strategic goals. [Methods] Taking the Weihe River Basin as the study area, this research employed methods including the InVEST model and the PLUS model to analyze cultivated land use and its carbon storage from 1990 to 2020, and to predict cultivated land carbon storage under multiple scenarios for 2035. [Findings](1) The carbon storage of cultivated land in the Weihe River Basin in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 was 1 020.70×10~6 t, 1 022.04×10~6 t, 972.02×10~6 t, and 943.66×10~6 t, respectively. Over the 30-year period, the cumulative decrease in cultivated land carbon storage was 72.92×10~6 t, with a net reduction of 10.71×10~6 t attributable to land use changes involving cultivated land.(2) By 2035, under the natural development, cultivated land protection, ecological protection, and urban development scenarios, the projected changes in carbon storage in the Weihe River Basin are-8.36×10~6 t, 0.76×10~6 t, 5.16×10~6 t, and-26.85×10~6 t, respectively. This indicates that protecting cultivated land can also lead to an increase in carbon storage in the study area.[Conclusions] Cultivated land is an ecosystem with high carbon sequestration potential. Implementing cultivated land protection policies, strictly controlling the expansion of construction land into cultivated land, and rationally optimizing the land use structure are conducive to mitigating the loss of carbon storage in the study area.更多还原