【摘要】 在中国“双碳”目标背景下，核能发展的分析和预测在制定可持续能源战略中发挥着关键作用。开发核能发展综合预测系统用于预测和评估未来核能在中国能源格局中的作用。基于大量国家能源发展的相关数据，进行数据工程化处理，耦合全球变化评估模型(GCAM)和长期能源替代规划系统(LEAP)等能源模型，实现对核能发展的宏观总量预测和区域化分布的预测，并实现模块化开发。新系统使用Java、VUE及Python的软件开发框架，集成Echarts可视化系统，开发核能发展的多因素预测和分析软件，可直接在浏览器中使用，简单方便。新系统实现了多情景的区域优化、核资源循环、先进核能技术迭代，可应用于中国核能发展预测，实现一次能源占比及发电、供热和制氢机组的区域分布及燃料需求和供给分析等功能，用于核能部署规划、碳减排情景分析及能源安全评估，为核能发展布局和多样化利用提供参考意见。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the context of China’s “double carbon” target, the analysis and prediction of nuclear energy development plays a key role in formulating a sustainable energy strategy. A comprehensive nuclear energy development forecasting system was developed, to predict and evaluate the future role of nuclear energy in China’s energy landscape. Based on a large amount of data on national energy development, data engineering was carried out, and energy models such as global change assess ment model(GCAM) and Long-range energy alternatives planning system(LEAP) were coupled to achieve macro-total forecasting and regionalized distribution forecasting of nuclear energy development, and modular development was realized. The system uses Java, VUE, and Python software development frameworks, integrates the Echarts visualization system, and develops multi-factor forecasting and analysis software for nuclear energy development that can be used directly in a browser, which was simple and convenient. The platform system implements multi-scenario regional optimization, nuclear resource recycling, and advanced nuclear energy technology iteration, and can be used to predict China’s nuclear energy development, realize functions such as the proportion of primary energy and the regional distribution of power generation, heating, and hydrogen production units, as well as fuel demand and supply analysis. It can be used for nuclear energy deployment planning, carbon emission reduction scenario analysis, and energy security assessment, providing reference opinions for the layout and diversified utilization of nuclear energy development.更多还原