【摘要】 基于2015—2022年企业注册数据，从路径与能级演化两个维度刻画上海大都市圈112个区县产业转型升级的格局特征，并通过二者联立测度产业转型升级潜力；结合不同用途土地供给总量、价格与分布特征，识别土地供给对产业转型潜力的作用机制。研究发现：（1）大都市圈产业转型呈现多层级、交错型空间分异，苏锡常—沪杭甬沿线区县表现出较强的非相关多样化与能级提升趋势；（2）大都市圈产业转型升级潜力呈现显著的核心—边缘结构；（3）土地供给的数量、价格与空间分布对转型潜力存在显著影响；（4）对于不同经济发展水平的区县，土地供给对产业转型升级的作用机制存在一定差异。通过“演化路径—演化能级—转型潜力—土地供给机制”的分析框架，揭示了上海大都市圈产业转型升级的时空特征与土地供给作用机制，以期为区域产业转型升级与土地供给政策的协同联动提供实证依据与实践启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using firm registration data from 2015 to 2022, this study illustrates industrial transformation and upgrading patterns across 112 districts and counties in the Shanghai Metropolitan Region from a dual perspectives of path evolution and capacity evolution, and further constructs a composite measure of potentials of industrial transformation and upgrading by integrating these two dimensions. By incorporating the total volume, pricing, and spatial distribution of land supply across different functions, the study identifies the mechanisms through which land supply influences the potentials of industrial transformation and upgrading. The findings reveal that:(1) industrial transformation exhibits multi-layered and interwoven spatial differentiation, with districts and counties along the Suzhou—Wuxi—Changzhou and Shanghai—Hangzhou—Ningbo corridors demonstrating stronger path-breaking capacity and upgrading momentum;(2) the potential for industrial transformation and upgrading displays a pronounced core–periphery structure;(3) the quantity, price, and spatial layout of land supply exert significant; and(4) the mechanism by which land supply influences industrial transformation and upgrading may vary across counties and districts with different levels of economic development. Through the analytical framework of evolutionary path—evolutionary capacity—transformation potentials—land supply mechanisms, this study elucidates the spatiotemporal characteristics of industrial transformation and upgrading as well as the influencing mechanisms of land supply in the Shanghai Metropolitan Region, offering empirical evidence and policy insights for the synergistic coordination of regional industrial transformation and land supply strategies.更多还原