【摘要】 新能源出力的不确定性、波动性等特点，对电网连锁故障的传播过程具有较大的影响，从而增加了关键线路辨识的难度。因此，提出一种新能源接入场景下电网连锁故障关键线路辨识方法，并分析评价了风电出力的实时波动和并网比例对辨识结果的影响。首先，依据历史信息建立风电功率预测误差概率分布，借助拉丁超立方采样方法构建连续多时刻风电出力场景。其次，基于风险价值法模拟风电出力实时变化场景下电网连锁故障，并采用平均失负荷量、运行风险等指标评估系统连锁故障风险。最后，利用风险理论法在事故链集合中辨识关键线路，通过对比关键线路改造前后系统运行风险证实关键线路辨识的有效性。新英格兰10机39节点系统算例仿真证实了所提方法能够准确辨识新能源接入场景下的电网连锁故障关键线路。更多还原

【Abstract】 The uncertainty and fluctuation of new energy generation output significantly affect the propagation process of cascading failures in power grid, thereby increasing the difficulty of critical line identification. Therefore, we propose a critical line identification method for power grid cascading failure in the new energy integration scenario, and evaluate the influences of real-time fluctuation and the penetration ratio of wind power on the identification results of the critical lines. Firstly, we established a probability distribution of wind power prediction error based on historical information, and constructed a continuous multi-time-step wind power output scenario using Latin hypercube sampling method. Secondly, we simulated the cascading failure of the power grid under the scenario of real-time change in wind power output based on the value-at-risk method, and evaluated the risk of cascading failure of the system using indicators such as average load loss and operation risk. Finally, we used the risk theory method to identify the critical lines within the accident chain set, and verified the effectiveness of the critical line identification by comparing the system operation risk before and after the modifications to the identified critical lines. The simulation results of New England 10-machine 39-bus system verify that the proposed method can accurately identify critical lines in power grid cascading failure under the new energy integration scenario.更多还原