【摘要】 目的 通过初步分析北京市朝阳区污水中诺如病毒(norovirus, NoV)检出情况、核酸浓度及其模型拟合精度，了解污水中NoV的动态分布特征，弥补传统人群监测的不足，为量化污水中NoV与人群NoV感染相关性研究和预测人群感染研究提供基础数据。方法 收集北京市朝阳区8个污水处理厂(wastewater treatment plant, WWTP)2023年6月—2024年6月期间污水样本，使用磁珠法富集浓缩污水中的诺如病毒并进行RT-qPCR检测诺如病毒GI/GII核酸，计算并分析诺如病毒GI/GII阳性检出率和拷贝数；使用2023年第22周—2024年第21周NoV GII拷贝数构建差分自回归移动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA)模型，并用2024年第22周—2024年第26周监测数据进行模型拟合和验证。结果 2023年6月—2024年6月期间，共采集904件污水，朝阳区污水中诺如病毒GI型和GII型总阳性检出率分别为93.92%(849/904)、95.35%(862/904)(χ~2=1.84,P>0.05),GI和GII型双阳性占比92.37%(835/904)。诺如病毒GI、GII型中位数拷贝数分别为269.499(108.607,588.880)、323.017(91.655,713.353)拷贝数/mL(Z=2.17,P=0.030)。各WWTP诺如病毒GI、GII型的阳性检出率和拷贝数之间均无统计学差异，且各WWTP诺如病毒GII型拷贝数流行趋势一致(F=2.82,P=0.093),而GI型拷贝数流行趋势存在统计学差异(F=7.25,P=0.007)。NoV GI和GII拷贝数季节性分布均具有统计学意义(P<0.05),春季最高(GI型月均拷贝数：603.607拷贝数/mL,GII型月均拷贝数：1 114.240拷贝数/mL)。污水中诺如病毒GII型拷贝数拟合最优模型为ARIMA(2,0,3)(平稳R~2=0.606,BIC=10.786),拟合拷贝数平均相对误差均≤17.15%,均方根误差为171.507,平均绝对百分比误差为82.557%。结论 2023—2024年北京市朝阳区污水中全年普遍存在诺如病毒或(和)核酸片段，需注重疾病监测的低谷期可能的潜在流行风险。建议持续监测并积累监测数据及时对ARIMA模型进行修正拟合以提高拟合精度和敏感度。可尝试应用污水监测预测疾病监测流行水平。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To investigate the dynamic distribution characteristics of norovirus(NoV) in the wastewater in Chaoyang district, Beijing, China, address the deficiency of conventional population monitoring, and provide basic data for quantitative studies on the correlation between NoV in wastewater and NoV infection in the population as well as studies predicting infection in the population through preliminary analysis of the detection, nucleic acid concentration, and accuracy of model fitting of NoV in wastewater in this area.Methods Wastewater samples from eight wastewater treatment plants(WWTPs) in Chaoyang district were collected from June 2023 to June 2024. The NoV in wastewater was enriched and concentrated using the magnetic bead method and was measured for the GI/GII nucleic acid using quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction(qRT-PCR). The NoV GI/GII positive detection rate and copy number(copies/mL) were calculated and analyzed. An autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model was constructed using NoV GII copy numbers from Week 22 of 2023 to Week 21 of 2024, and the model was fitted and validated using monitoring data from Week 22 of 2024 to Week 26 of 2024.Results From June 2023 to June 2024, a total of 904 wastewater samples were collected, and the overall positive detection rates of NoV GI and GII were 93.92%(849/904) and 95.35%(862/904), respectively(χ~2=1.84,P>0.05), with the dual-positive rate for types GI and GII being 92.37%(835/904). The median copy numbers of GI and GII were 269.499(108.607, 588.880) and 323.017(91.655, 713.353) copies/mL, respectively(Z=2.17,P=0.030). There were no significant differences between the positive detection rate and copy number of NoV GI and GII across the eight WWTPs, with a consistent trend in the prevalence of NoV GII copy number across the WWTPs(F=2.82,P=0.093), while there was a significant difference in the trend in the prevalence of type GI copy number(F=7.25,P=0.007). There were significant differences in seasonal distributions of NoV copy numbers of GI and GII(P<0.05), with the highest monthly average copy number in the spring(GI: 603.607 copies/mL, GII: 1 114.240 copies/mL). The optimal fitting model for the GII copy number of NoV in wastewater was ARIMA(2, 0, 3)(smooth R~2=0.606, BIC=10.786), with a mean relative errors of the fitted copy numbers of ≤17.15%, a root mean square error of 171.507, and a mean absolute percentage error of 82.557%.Conclusion NoV and/or its nucleic acid fragments were consistently detected in the wastewater in Chaoyang district, Beijing, throughout the year from 2023 to 2024. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to the potential epidemiological risks in the trough. It is recommended to continuously monitor the situation, accumulate relevant data, and timely calibrate the fitting of the ARIMA model to improve its accuracy and sensitivity. It is worth attempting to predict disease and monitor prevalence through wastewater monitoring.更多还原