【摘要】 本研究系统梳理了我国粮食生产取得的历史性成就，并剖析了当前供需格局所面临的复杂挑战：在供给端，我国粮食生产虽已实现“二十一连丰”，但依然面临资源环境约束、种粮效益偏低、国际供应链不确定性等多重压力；在需求端，消费结构持续升级，口粮消费下降而饲料粮需求攀升。为科学研判未来趋势，本研究综合运用时间序列分析与因素解析方法进行预测，结果显示，在“藏粮于地、藏粮于技”战略支撑下，我国粮食产能稳步提升，2035年有望成功突破7.35亿t大关，但粮食供求“紧平衡”的总体格局与结构性矛盾短期内难以根本改变。基于此，本研究提出相应对策建议，以期为构建更高层次、更可持续的国家粮食安全保障体系提供科学依据与政策参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 This study systematically reviews the historic achievements in China’s grain production and analyzes the complex challenges faced by the current supply and demand pattern:on the supply side,although China has achieved a record of 21 consecutive years of grain harvests,it still faces multiple pressures such as resource and environmental constraints,low profitability of grain farming,and uncertainties in the international supply chain;on the demand side,the consumption structure continues to upgrade,with a decline in staple food consumption and a rise in feed grain demand.To scientifically predict future trends,this study comprehensively employs time series analysis and factor decomposition methods for forecasting.The results show that under the support of the strategy of"storing grain in the land and in technology",China’s grain production capacity has steadily increased,and it is expected to successfully exceed 735 million tons by 2035.However,the overall pattern of a"tight balance"in grain supply and demand and structural contradictions are unlikely to be fundamentally changed in the short term.Based on this,this study proposes corresponding countermeasures and suggestions,aiming to provide scientific basis and policy references for building a higher-level and more sustainable national food security guarantee system.更多还原