【摘要】 【目标】分析风景道景观生态风险的时空分异规律并进行多情景预测，旨在为协调生态保护与旅游开发的矛盾关系提供决策支持。【方法】通过构建“生境敏感性-景观损失度”的二维风景道景观生态风险评估框架，分析2000—2020年草原天路沿线景观类型及生态风险的时空演变规律，运用ARIMA-MOP-PLUS模型预测2030年多情景下的景观类型及生态风险变化，并使用多尺度地理加权回归模型量化景观生态风险的驱动因素。【结果】2000—2020年，林地、草地与建设用地增加，耕地减少。草原天路建成后，景观损失度与生境敏感性提升，生态风险增加，生态风险“高-高”聚类区由面状分布演变为点状分布，集中于营地与景点周围。2030年，在经济发展情景下，建设用地增幅为50%,生态风险最高(0.17);历史发展情景下，耕地增幅为6.31%,较高生态风险区占比最大；生态保护情景下林地增幅最高，生态风险最低(0.15);协调发展情景下生态风险较低(0.16)。景观生态风险受自然气候、旅游开发、道路建设这3个维度的多种因素影响，其中自然气候(降水量、蒸散量)的影响最为显著。驱动因素的整体作用强度由草原天路两侧向中部递减。【结论】基于多情景生态风险阈值预测，对草原天路沿线实施分区管控，通过差异化调控建设用地与生态用地占比，实现开发强度与风险承载力的动态适配，推动区域多维效益协同优化。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Objective] This study analyzed spatio-temporal differentiation patterns of landscape ecological risk along scenic byways and conducted multi-scenario predictions, aiming to provide decision support for coordinating the conflicting relation between ecological protection and tourism development. [Method] A two-dimensional framework for landscape ecological risk evaluation along scenic byways was constructed based on habitat sensitivity and landscape loss degree. The study analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of landscape types and ecological risks along Grassland Travel Route from 2000 to 2020. ARIMA-MOP-PLUS model was used to predict landscape types and ecological risk variations in multiple scenarios in 2030. The multiscale geographically weighted regression models were used to quantify the driving factors of landscape ecological risk. [Result] From 2000 to 2020, the forest land, grassland and construction land increase, while the cultivated land decreases. After the completion of Grassland Travel Route, the landscape loss degree and habitat sensitivity increase, leading to higher ecological risk. The high-high ecological-risk-cluster areas evolve from area-based to point-based distribution, concentrating around campsites and scenic spots. In the economic development scenario, the construction land is projected to increase by 50% in 2030 with the highest ecological risk of 0.17. In the historical development scenario, the cultivated land is projected to increase by 6.31% with the largest proportion of high ecological risk areas. In the ecological protection scenario, the forest land shows the highest increase with the lowest ecological risk of 0.15. In the coordinated development scenario, the ecological risk remains relatively low, which is 0.16. Landscape ecological risk is influenced by multiple factors across three dimensions, i.e., natural climate, tourism development and road construction. The natural climate factors(e.g., precipitation, evapotranspiration) have the most significant impact. The overall influencing intensity of driving factors decreases from both sides of Grassland Travel Route toward the center. [Conclusion] Based on multi-scenario ecological risk threshold predictions, the zoned management and control along Grassland Travel Route are implemented. Through differentially regulated proportion of construction land and ecological land, the dynamic adaptation between development intensity and risk bearing capacity can be achieved, promoting coordinated optimization of regional multi-dimensional benefits.更多还原