【摘要】 【目标】针对不同碳税机制下的多式联运路径优化问题，考虑了突发性补货或季节性变化等意外因素带来的需求不确定性。【方法】分别在统一碳税机制和分段累进碳税机制下，以总成本和总碳排放量最小为目标，构建随机需求下的双目标0-1路径优化模型，并基于Monte Carlo模拟和大数定律极大化不确定目标的期望值对模型进行转换。设计改进的非支配排序遗传算法对模型求解以获得满足目标要求的相对较优解。该算法能够在避免“早熟”缺陷的基础上扩大搜索空间与范围以期获得更加优秀的个体与方案。通过具体算例分析模型与算法对于双碳背景下运输问题的适用性，同时探讨不同碳税机制对总成本和总碳排放量的影响及其在需求波动条件下的适用范围和有效性。【结果】双目标策略下企业仅需略微提高成本即可取得一定的减排效果，更适合双碳背景下的运输场景。【结论】企业的碳排放控制效果在固定碳税机制或分段累进碳税机制下均会受到碳税率的影响，但相比统一碳税机制，分段累进碳税机制在高需求不确定时具有更加明显的减排效果与优势，应考虑企业现有能力与减排技术水平，确定合适的碳税率与排放阈值，以调动企业减排积极性。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Objective]Aiming at the multimodal transport route optimization with different carbon tax mechanisms, the study considers the demand uncertainty caused by the unexpected factors, e.g., sudden replenishment or seasonal changes. [Method]A dual-objective 0-1 route planning model was constructed under stochastic demand with the goal of minimizing total transportation cost and carbon emission. The expected value of uncertain target was maximized based on Monte Carlo simulation and the rule of large numbers to convert the model. The improved non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm was designed for solving the model so as to obtain a relatively better solution to meet the target requirements. The algorithm can expand the search space, and scope on the basis of avoiding the premature defect in order to obtain better individuals and solutions. Finally, the model and algorithm applicability to the transportation problem under the dual-carbon background was analyzed through the numerical example. Meanwhile the influences of different carbon tax mechanisms on the total cost and carbon emissions were discussed, as well as the application scope and effectiveness under the demand fluctuation conditions. [Result] The enterprises, with the dual-objective strategy, can obtain certain emission reduction effects with a slight increase in cost, which is more suitable for transportation scenarios with dual-carbon background. [Conclusion] The carbon tax rate will affect the enterprises’ carbon emission control effect with the fixed carbon tax or the staged progressive carbon tax mechanism. However, compared with the unified carbon tax mechanism, the staged carbon tax mechanism has more obvious emission reduction effects and advantages when the demand uncertainty is high. It requires decision makers consider the current capabilities and emission reduction technology level, as well as determine the appropriate carbon tax rate and emission threshold to mobilize the enterprise enthusiasm.更多还原