【摘要】 [背景]路衍经济是行业转变发展方式、提升服务水平、增强发展韧性的重要选择。交旅融合产业是路衍经济的重要产业方向，高速公路服务区人流、车流汇集，具有天然的窗口平台优势和点状区位优势，是发展交旅融合产业的最佳场景。[目标]通过使用设施基本数据与历史交通流数据，采用熵值法对新建交旅融合服务区的新增客流进行预测，可以为服务区的建设和运营提供数据支持。[方法]以G75兰海高速公路太石服务区交旅融合项目为依托，基于承载力、价格等影响因素，构建了基于熵值法的吸引力模型，提出了交旅融合服务区新增客流的预测方法。采用熵值法确定模型系数，依据淡旺季各功能分区内设施的开放情况定量计算。[结果]客流计算结果显示，娱乐休闲区在开放期间吸引的客流最多，占到当月新增客流的61.1%。餐饮类与住宿类在淡旺季间的新增客流差距不大，而商务招待类的淡季客流显著高于旺季客流。[应用]通过计算交旅融合服务区中各功能区的新增客流量，可以为建成后的交旅融合服务区各功能区的开放计划及人员配备提供数据支撑，为提高服务区服务质量和服务满意度提供决策依据，以提高服务区的经营效益和资源利用率。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Background] Highway derivative economy is an important choice for the industry to transform its development mode, improve service levels, and enhance development resilience. The transportation-tourism integration industry is an important industry direction of highway derivative economy, especially in the expressway service areas, where are crowded with people and vehicles. The expressway service areas, as the best scenarios, have natural window platform advantages and point location advantages for developing the transportation-tourism integration industry. [Objective] By using the basic facility data and historical traffic flow data, the entropy method was adopted to predict the additional passenger flow of the newly built transportation-tourism integrated service areas, providing the data support for service area construction and operation. [Method] The study based on G75 Lanzhou-Haikou expressway Taishi service area transportation-tourism integration project. The entropy-method-based attractiveness model was constructed based on the factors, e.g., carrying capacity and price. The prediction method for additional passenger flow the integrated transportation-tourism service area was proposed. The quantitative calculations were carried out with entropy method based on the facilities operation in each functional area during peak and off-peak seasons. [Result] The passenger flow calculation results show that the entertainment and leisure areas attract the most passengers during the open period, accounting for 61.1% the newly additional passenger flow in the month. There is little difference in the passenger flow increase between the catering and accommodation categories during the off-season and peak season, while the off-season passenger for business entertainment is significantly higher than that during the peak season. [Application] By calculating the additional passenger flow in each functional area of transportation-tourism integrated service area, it can provide the data support for opening scheme and allocation in each functional area. It will provide the decision-making basis for improving the service quality and customer satisfaction in service area, so as to enhance the business efficiency and resource utilization of service areas.更多还原