【摘要】 本文基于2000—2020年74个经济体的数据,考察区域贸易协定深化对一国全球价值链供给端与需求端稳定性的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,区域贸易协定深化显著提升了一国供给端与需求端的全球价值链稳定性水平。机制分析表明,制度弥合、研发要素流动、全球价值链风险—收益比下降和全球价值链网络分工协同度提升是区域贸易协定深化促进全球价值链稳定的主要渠道。异质性分析表明,区域贸易协定深化的全球价值链稳定效应会由于全球价值链生产活动、本土市场规模、条款类型、全球价值链地位以及区域贸易协定网络地位的差异而表现出异质性。区域贸易协定深化对全球价值链稳定性水平提升的效果会受到全球价值链生产活动区域化重构的影响。本文研究为推动产业链供应链安全水平和稳定性的提升提供了一些启示^（1）。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using data from 74 economies spanning from 2000 to 2020, this paper investigates the impact and mechanisms of the deepening regional trade agreements(RTAs) on the stability of a country’s GVCs from both the supply and demand sides. The findings indicate that deepening of RTAs robustily enhances the GVC stability from both supply and demand sides. Mechanism analysis identifies four key channels: institutional convergence, R&D factors mobility, a reduced risk-reward ratio in GVC participation, and increased synergy within GVC network division of labor. The analysis shows that the stability effect of deeper trade agreements exhibits heterogeneity due to differences in GVC production activities, domestic market sizes, provision types, GVC positions and the network position of RTAs. Further analysis reveals that the positive impact of RTAs deepening on GVC stability is subject to the moderating role of regional reconfiguration in GVC production activities. This study thus makes a timely contribution to the theoretical literature on RTA deepening within GVCs and offers a concrete policy foundation for enhancing the security and stability of industrial and supply chains.更多还原