【摘要】 2025年初特朗普政府大幅削减对非援助，不仅对撒哈拉以南非洲造成了急剧的短期冲击，也给非洲国家援助体系结构的完整与存续基础带来了挑战。本文结合美国对非援助项目数据与案例，分析了援助削减的影响机制与影响模式。研究发现，援助项目能否存续，主要取决于其与美国战略优先事项的契合度、资金规模与管理层级。美国援助削减暴露出非洲国家对援助的高度依赖性与既有援助安排的脆弱性。美国特朗普政府对非援助削减的影响远超资金缺口本身，不仅直接削弱了公共卫生、粮食安全等关键领域的公共物品与服务供给，引发了集体行动困境，更造成了高昂的转换成本与治理能力耗损，但客观上也使得非洲国家减少了对美国援助的依赖，转而对新兴援助国进入非洲有更多期待。美国对非援助削减为非洲外援体系的重构提供了历史契机，新兴援助国、传统捐助方与非洲区域组织的互动将重塑援助格局。对中国而言，有效的应对策略并非简单填补资金缺口，而应通过提供精准、可预测的制度性支持，增强非洲公共服务供给的稳定性，从而在体系重构中扮演建设性角色。更多还原

【Abstract】 In early 2025 the Trump administration implemented substantial cuts to U.S. aid to Africa. These reductions produced severe short-term shocks across sub-Saharan Africa and also challenged the integrity and sustainability of established aid arrangements. Drawing on U.S. aid project data and case studies, this paper analyzes the mechanisms and patterns through which the cuts affected African recipients. Research findings show that whether an aid project survives largely depends on its alignment with U.S. strategic priorities, its funding size, and its administrative level. The aid cuts revealed African governments’ high dependence on external assistance and the fragility of existing aid arrangements. Beyond the direct fiscal shortfall, U.S. reductions have weakened the provision of public goods and services in critical sectors such as public health and food security, produced collective-action problems, and imposed substantial switching costs and governance strains. At the same time, the reductions have lowered recipient dependence on U.S. funding and created opportunities for emerging donors to enter Africa. The U.S. retrenchment thus creates a historical window for restructuring the external aid system in Africa; interactions among emerging donors, traditional donors, and African regional organizations are likely to reshape the aid landscape. For China, an effective response should not be limited to plugging budget gaps but should prioritize predictable, targeted institutional support that stabilizes public-service delivery and enables China to play a constructive role in the system’s reconfiguration.更多还原