【摘要】 文中在异质性生产者框架下构建产业动态模型，分析环保处罚对畜禽养殖业盈利空间的溢出效应及其作用机制。理论推导表明，环保处罚通过抬升“零利润生产率”提高行业准入门槛，引致产业结构调整，并意外带来盈利空间扩张的间接效应。实证检验结果显示，环保处罚对畜禽养殖业整体盈利水平具有显著正向影响，且在非正式环境规制强、经济发展水平高和市场化程度高的地区效应更为突出。机制分析表明，该溢出效应主要通过三条途径实现：提升产业平均全要素生产率、提高规模化养殖率、加剧小规模养殖户的收入压力和退出风险，揭示了异质性生产者在绿色转型过程中的差异。研究结论表明，环保处罚通过结构重组意外拓展了畜禽养殖业盈利空间，但其伴生的分化效应需要政策层面的关注与调节。更多还原

【Abstract】 This study builds a dynamic industry model to examine the spillover effects of environmental penalties on livestock farming profitability. Environmental penalties raise the "zero-profit productivity" threshold, increase industry entry barriers, and trigger structural adjustments. Empirical results show a significant positive effect on overall profitability, especially in regions with strong informal regulation, high economic development, and high marketization. The effects operate through three channels: higher average total factor productivity, greater large-scale farming, and increased exit risk for small producers. These findings highlight producer heterogeneity during green transformation. Overall, environmental penalties can expand industry profitability, but the resulting differentiation effects require policy attention.更多还原