【摘要】 在确定性与不确定性情境下，研究执行者兼具作为忠实代理人和地方利益代表者双重角色的相机执行策略选择，有助于打开政策执行的黑箱，剖析执行者的行为逻辑。论文借助确定性与不确定性情境影响下的自由裁量权，并综合考虑政策目标的考核压力，构建了“权力-压力”模型。在“权力-压力”模型中，执行者采取波动式执行、象征性执行、政治性执行、行政性执行四种策略，相应地产生短期有效、效果不佳、效果显著、效果不一这四种执行结果。通过对我国生态保护领域的四个重要政策进行多案例对比分析，研究揭示了执行者在确定性与不确定性情境下的相机执行策略选择机制。更多还原

【Abstract】 Examining the discretionary strategy selection of implementers—who serve dual roles as both loyal agents and local interest representatives under conditions of certainty and uncertainty helps unpack the “ black box” of policy implementation and analyze their behavioral logic. By leveraging the discretion shaped by certainty and uncertainty, along with considering the pressure of policy performance evaluations, this study constructs a “power-pressure” model. Within this model, implementers adopt four strategies: fluctuating implementation, symbolic implementation, political implementation, and administrative implementation, leading to four corresponding outcomes: short-term effectiveness, poor effectiveness, significant effectiveness, and mixed effectiveness. Through a comparative multi-case analysis of four major ecological conservation policies in China, the study reveals the mechanism behind implementers’ discretionary strategy selection in contexts of certainty and uncertainty.更多还原